037
FNUS73 KDMX 011241
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Skunk River Flats...Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
741 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions to start the day along with westerly winds at 5 to
10 mph. Winds gradually shift through the day, turning to our the
north this afternoon and eventually easterly by tonight. Min RH
values bottom out in the 30 percent range as temps warm to near 70
this afternoon. Low chances for isolated showers through the day,
but the bulk of the wetting rainfall ahead should wait until
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by late afternoon
and evening, continuing overnight into Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    north 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (32200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  69  64  64  66  64  74
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  63  65  67  69  70  70
RH..............52  48  44  41  37  36  36
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NE
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.16  14  14  14  13  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.8
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE
Transp wind spd.15  14  12  10  9   9   9
GFDI............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100031  32  30  26  22  20  22

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    rain showers with thunderstorms likely
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 20
                    mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 23 mph
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (20500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........79     67     77     83     91     91
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Temp............69     64     57     54     53     52
RH..............39     50     64     71     77     83
20 ft wind......NE 8   NE 9   E 10   E 13   E 14   E 18
20 ft wind gust.12     13     15     17     20     25
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   900    600    600    900    1000
Transport wind..NE 12  E 13   E 15   E 17   E 22   E 22
GFDI............0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index....5      5      5      5      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100017     10     8      10     17     19

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers with
                    thunderstorms likely.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 17 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 13 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 22 to 26 mph shifting to the south 17
                    to 21 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting
                    to the west 13 to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (27500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........94        96        93        93
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
Temp............52        52        61        64
RH..............86        100       90        90
20 FT wind......E 20G26   SE 18G25  S 16G22   S 14G20
Mix hgt (ft)....1000      1200      1200      1100
Transport wind..E 24      SE 24     S 21      SW 15
GFDI............1         0         0         0
Haines index....3         2         2         3
SDspl kt-ft/100021        26        21        14

$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Brandon Clough
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412894.0/DMX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclough@storycountyiowa.gov