Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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046
FNUS73 KDMX 271226
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Snake Creek...USFWS
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
726 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Northwest winds will remain fairly steady around 10 to 15 knots
for most of the day before dropping off late this afternoon.
Surface fuels remain somewhat cured but also somewhat damp.
Relative humidity will fall off after sunrise, with minima
generally in the 40s late in the day.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming mostly
                    sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy drizzle early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........36 at ignition...Max 55.
RH..................79 percent at ignition...Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 14 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise West winds 9 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2800-4700
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........97  95  92  80  68  56  46  36  27  26
WEATHER COV.....PTY
WEATHER TYPE....DZL
TSTM COV........
TEMP............36  39  41  44  47  49  51  53  54  55
RH..............79  70  65  60  53  50  48  44  45  43
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..14  13  13  13  13  12  12  12  10  9
20 FT WIND GUST.20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W
MIXNG WIND SPD..22  21  18  17  16  15  15  15  15  13
HAINES INDEX....2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 37.
RH..................Max 85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast 5 to 8
                    mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......3200-4600 ft AGL decreasing to 400-1800 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 9 mph shifting to the east 3 to
                    12 mph in the late evening and early morning,
                    then shifting to the northeast 14 to 15 mph
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........25     33     50     63     74     83
WEATHER COV.....                                   S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
TEMP............55     52     47     43     40     39
RH..............43     50     63     73     82     82
20 FT WIND......W 8    NW 6   N 3    N 5    NE 6   NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10            5                    10
MIX HGT (FT)....4600   3200   400    400    400    600
MIXNG WIND......W 9    NW 5   E 3    E 5    E 9    E 14
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      3      2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely.
Temperature.........Max 48.
RH..................Min 63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......700-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 16 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........86        93        97        98
WEATHER COV.....S CHC     CHANCE    LIKELY    LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
TEMP............37        40        44        46
RH..............85        73        70        68
20 FT WIND......NE 8G10   NE 12G20  NE 12G15  NE 12G15
MIX HGT (FT)....700       1000      1000      1000
MIXNG WIND......NE 16     NE 18     NE 21     NE 18
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         2

$$
Forecaster...Lee
Requested by...Chad Loreth
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707854.0/DMX
.EMAIL Chad_Loreth@fws.gov



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