Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 241247
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Osborne WRP...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
747 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Strong south winds are expected today as pressure gradient remains
tight. Strongest winds will be in northern Iowa with gusts
approaching 40 mph by afternoon. Winds will be somewhat weaker in
southern Iowa but still a bit gusty by afternoon. The strong winds
will aid in smoke dispersion today but also make it more difficult
to control any fires once they get started. Relative humidity
values will fall to around 30 percent by mid afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................63 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 7 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 24
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 12 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 7 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 24
                    mph with gusts to around 35 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-2100 ft
                    AGL increasing to 4600-5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph increasing to 24 to 33 mph
                    late in the morning, then decreasing to 13 to
                    21 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38  39  40  43  47  51  55  58  60  58
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............51  56  61  64  66  67  68  69  70  70
RH..............63  53  46  40  36  33  32  31  32  32
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..12  15  18  21  22  23  24  24  24  22
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  30  30  30  30  35  35  35  30
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   9   11  13  13  14  14  14  14  13
EYE LVL WND GST.15  20  30  30  30  30  35  35  35  30
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 2.1 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 4.6
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..13  15  18  24  31  33  29  21  14  13
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 83 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 9 to 18 mph decreasing to around 8
                    mph early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 18 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph decreasing to around 8 mph early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......2600-4200 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1400 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........55     54     60     68     67     59
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............69     64     57     55     54     52
RH..............35     45     59     64     66     74
20 FT WIND......S 18   S 14   SE 12  SE 12  S 9    S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.30     20     15     15     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 11   S 8    SE 7   SE 7   S 5    S 5
EYE LVL WND GST.30     20     15     15     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....4200   2600   300    400    400    300
MIXNG WIND......SE 13  SE 13  S 10   S 12   S 12   SE 10
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      4      3      2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers in the late morning and afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 61 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 8 to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2400-4200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 17 mph increasing to 21 to 23
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........66        90        93        92
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD              CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
TEMP............50        55        61        65
RH..............83        74        67        63
20 FT WIND......S 8G10    SE 8G10   SE 8G10   E 10G15
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5G10    SE 5G10   SE 5G10   E 6G15
MIX HGT (FT)....400       1300      2400      3700
MIXNG WIND......S 14      S 10      SE 14     SE 22
HAINES INDEX....2         2         3         3

$$
Forecaster...Cogil
Requested by...Justin Clark
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707652.0/DMX
.EMAIL justin.clark@dnr.iowa.gov



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