000
FNUS73 KDMX 241251
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Lost Island Marsh...DNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
751 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Minimal fire weather concerns today. Winds will be light and
variable to start the morning, initially favoring an east
northeasterly wind then becoming more predominantly out of the
southeast through mid-day. Relative humidities will bottom out
around 25 to 30 percent. The morning surface inversion should
erode by mid- day as well, becoming fully mixed around noon to 1
pm.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 10 mph shifting to the south 8 to 9
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (37100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   5   10  9   2   0   2   3   4   11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............41  45  48  52  54  56  60  61  61  62
RH..............76  68  60  50  46  43  36  33  33  31
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..5   6   8   8   8   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.        10  9   9   9   9   9   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.10  8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   9
GFDI............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100010  11  14  20  25  31  31  32  35  37

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (42700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........30     36     57     65     82     72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............61     57     50     49     47     45
RH..............32     38     52     52     56     62
20 ft wind......S 9    SE 9   SE 9   SE 12  SE 12  SE 13
20 ft wind gust.12     13     15     20     21     22
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   3000   400    500    500    600
Transport wind..S 10   S 12   S 13   S 15   S 16   S 16
GFDI............1      1      1      1      1      1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100040     31     5      6      7      8

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 22 mph increasing to 23
                    to 24 mph with gusts to around 36 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 25 mph increasing to 26 to 28 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (108100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (115200
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
GFDI................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........62        51        53        61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............44        49        62        67
RH..............68        68        48        40
20 FT wind......SE 13G22  SE 17G28  SE 21G31  SE 23G35
Mix hgt (ft)....600       1600      3600      4900
Transport wind..S 16      S 22      S 26      S 28
GFDI............1         1         2         3
Haines index....4         4         4         4
SDspl kt-ft/10009         31        82        115

$$
Forecaster...Dodson
Requested by...Todd Perry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412218.0/DMX
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL todd.perry@dnr.iowa.gov