062
FNUS73 KDTX 291713
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Prairies & Ponds Prescribed Burn...City of Lapeer Fire & Rescue
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
113 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...No fire weather concerns over the next few days with
minimum RHs at 40 percent or above. Showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon as a cold front moves through and clears southeast
Michigan tonight. Just slightly cooler and drier conditions for
Tuesday. Warming up again on Wednesday as a warm front passes
through the region, with the better precipitation chances located
north of the area.

.6 AM WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...13).

TIME (EDT)      5AM
SKY (%).........21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............46
RH..............93
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW
EYE LVL WND SPD.2
EYE LVL WND GST.4
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4
HAINES INDEX....4
SMOKE DISPER....16

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds...becoming west around 11 mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph...increasing to southwest 16
                    to 24 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then becoming west 20 to 22 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Excellent (MAX...778)...increasing to excellent
                   (MAX...1043) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........34     60     43     41     54     35
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............46     49     60     69     74     76
RH..............94     87     66     54     52     46
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW     S      S      S      SW     W
EYE LVL WND SPD.2      5      7      10     11     11
EYE LVL WND GST.4      6      11     16     18     17
MIX HGT (KFT)...300    400    1200   3100   5300   6000
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      5      5
SMOKE DISPER....14     30     171    597    1115   1132

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent)becoming mostly
                    cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 11 mph...becoming
                    northeast 5 to 6 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph...becoming north around 7
                    mph overnight, then becoming northeast after
                    3 am.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...19).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
SKY (%).........24        25        35        50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TEMP............75        67        58        54
RH..............44        52        66        77
EYE LEVEL WIND..W 11      NW 7      N 5       NE 6
EYE LEVEL WIND..16        12        7         8
MIX HGT (FT)....4000      300       400       500
HAINES INDEX....5         5         5         5
SMOKE DISPER....608       25        29        28

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 5 to 8 mph...becoming southeast 8 to
                    10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 14 mph...becoming southeast 15
                    to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Good (MAX...400).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........54        55        54        43
WEATHER COV.....                              S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
TEMP............51        57        69        74
RH..............84        72        49        42
EYE LEVEL WIND..E 5       E 7       SE 8      SE 10
EYE LEVEL WIND..8         11        13        14
MIX HGT (FT)....400       700       1800      3100
HAINES INDEX....5         4         4         3
SMOKE DISPER....31        69        183       419

$$
Forecaster...Frey
Requested by...Mike Vogt, Fire Chief
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412699.0/DTX
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mvogt@ci.lapeer.mi.us