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000
FXUS63 KEAX 122321
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures expected through the middle of next
  week

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon into
  Tuesday; potential for some strong to severe storms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A surface low just to the east of the Great Lakes region continues
to push off to the northeast with higher pressure impacting central
CONUS. There are still some remnants of a strengthened pressure
gradient as winds winds are still gusting to about 20-25 mph across
the area. Winds are still coming from the northwest advecting cool,
dry air keeping high temperatures in upper 60s and low 70s across
the area today. Tonight into Saturday, expect winds to shift to the
south as the surface ridge axis moves to the east of our area. This
will initiate the weekend warming trend that will take high
temperatures into the low to mid 80s. The warm air advection from
the Gulf is amplified due to the strengthened pressure gradient as a
result of a shortwave pushing off the leeside of the Rocky
Mountains. Winds for Saturday are expected to gust as high as 30-35
mph with the strongest gusts being to the south of Interstate 70.
Because winds will be coming from the south through the weekend,
expect warmer, more moist air to advect gradually increasing
humidity values through the weekend.

For the start of next week, ridging begins to move out of the area
and as a deep upper-level shortwave trough moves into the Four-
Corners region. This will lead to surface low pressure system moving
into central CONUS. Monday is expected to be a continuation of the
warm conditions with the exception of the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms during the evening and overnight hours. SPC has
northwest Missouri in a Day 4 15% risk for severe weather. With
persistent southerly winds advecting warm, moist air, dewpoint
temperatures are forecasted to reach the 60s. This will lead greater
instability. In fact, the GFS suggests CAPE values ranging from 1500-
2000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. There will also be ample
shear out ahead of the shortwave into the evening and overnight
hours such that if we are able to see storms, the could become
severe. One of the limiting factors would be a significant cap
present through the afternoon and evening hours. Whether or not
there is enough cooling aloft to erode the cap will be a major
determining factor. The GFS and NAM disagree on the strength of
the cap and the amount of CAPE present in the environment. The
SPC also has eastern Missouri in another 15% risk for severe
weather on Tuesday as the same storm system system advances
further east. This will be dependent on what takes place on
Monday. We will continue to monitor this system with time.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s through
Wednesday, as the push of cold air behind the storm system that
affected the area on Monday and Tuesday is relatively week. On
Thursday, the next cold front is expected to push through increasing
precipitation chances and shifting winds to the north. This will
result in a break from the heat going into next weekend. Highs
Thursday will be near normal with slightly below normal highs on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast as a surface
ridge traverses the area. That will result in light winds
overnight but as that high moves east of the area Saturday,
winds will become southerly and gusty during the afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB/Collier
AVIATION...CDB