206
FXUS63 KEAX 030541
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1241 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through the evening hours.
Training storms are causing flash flooding issues mainly east of a
line extending from Kirksville, MO through Ottawa, KS. Please be
careful if traveling.

- Friday looks to be dry with another round of storms expected late
Friday night into Saturday. Scattered storms are possible throughout
the weekend mainly south of I-70.

- There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Monday.
  All severe hazards are possible. The forecast will be refined
  as Monday approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A cold front is steadily working its way through the region.
Progress has been slow keeping showers and thunderstorms around
through the much of the afternoon. The primary concern through
this evening is training storms across areas along a line
stretching from Kirksville southwest through Ottawa, KS east of
the I-35 corridor. Dynamic interactions between the front and
southerly flow across Central MO caused the front to retrograde
NW through the late morning hours. A building high to the west
has restarted the eastward push of the front this afternoon.
This has resulted in portions of north central MO through east
central KS receiving around 1-4 inches of rain over the past
several hours. This has exacerbate hydrological impacts with
reports of flash flooding in urban areas and areas which have
received lots of rainfall over the past 7 days. Training storms
look to continue especially across east of the I-35 corridor.

High pressure builds in through the evening hours pushing rain out
this evening/overnight. Winds steadily circle the compass rose from
south to northwest eventually becoming easterly as the surface high
pushes across IA tomorrow. A small shortwave may bring some isolated
showers late Friday afternoon across areas south of US-50; however,
those will likely dissipated fairly quickly after sunset. A more
pronounced shortwave enters the area Friday evening into Saturday
with showers and thunderstorms looking to arrive Saturday morning
and traverse the region through the morning hours look to depart in
the mid afternoon. The active weather pattern looks to continue over
the next several days. Another leeward wave looks to pass south of
the region Sunday which could bring more showers and thunderstorms
across areas south of I-70 as well as east of US-65.

The most prominent feature of this active pattern is an anticipated
trough which lands on the West Coast early Saturday morning. As it
traverses the Rockies Monday, it becomes negatively tilted which
brings the potential for strong to severe storms across the area
Monday afternoon and evening. Uncertainties remain regarding where
exactly the area of greatest potential for severe weather lies.
Models have been oscillating between southern and northern Plains.
SPC outlooks highlights this uncertainty with their Day 5 risk
extending across most of the central Plains. Regardless of finer
details, the potential for strong to severe storms including all
severe hazards is possible during the afternoon and evening Monday.
Latest guidance leans towards overnight widespread rainfall for
western MO. Expected PWAT values above 1-1.5 inches presents further
opportunities for flooding as heavy downpours are possible. Extended
guidance persists the active pattern through next week suggesting
more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers have exited the terminals to the east, leaving
VFR conditions and light northerly winds in its wake. Outside
of some patchy fog briefly lowering VSBYs to MVFR at STJ early
Friday morning, VFR conditions should prevail through the
period. Light northerly winds will become easterly by mid Friday
morning, increasing slightly toward 9 to 10 knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...BMW