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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 161058
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
458 AM MDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR SUNNY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE US A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING AND GIVE US BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WE WILL
SEE MORE SUNNY...VERY WARM WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND OH YES...VERY
WARM...BUT NOT TOO HOT. FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL SEE A ZONAL
FLOW SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP US
SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING THREE TO FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO AT BEST WE WILL SEE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS. WHAT THE SYSTEM
WILL DO IS KICK OUR WINDS UP A NOTCH. WE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IT WILL GIVE US A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING...BUT I STILL EXPECT OUR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE MORE OF THE SAME AS A DRY ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP OUR SKIES CLEAR AND OUR TEMPERATURES RUNNING THREE TO
FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE SOME
MOISTURE MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. RIGHT NOW THE GFS MOVES THE
MOISTURE WELL INTO NEW MEXICO...WHILE THE ECMWF ONLY TRICKLES A
LITTLE MOISTURE IN. FOR NOW I`VE UPPED THE CLOUDS FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z-17/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE
UNLIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM 27015G25KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SUNNY...DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WE WILL SEE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SINGLE
DIGIT MIN RH`S. ON SATURDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL GIVE US A FEW CLOUDS AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. FOR SUNDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK...WE WON`T BE AS WINDY...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY DRY SINGLE DIGIT RH`S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 94  68  94  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           94  58  94  56  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              94  64  93  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              95  62  94  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              72  42  72  45  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   93  62  93  60  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             88  52  88  51  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  93  59  93  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               93  54  92  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      94  67  94  65  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               94  62  94  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            98  59  97  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              90  64  90  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  94  62  94  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            95  63  93  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  57  94  64  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           93  52  93  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   92  56  92  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                93  59  93  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               96  62  95  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 82  48  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               83  48  82  47  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                80  48  80  40  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 85  48  82  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               88  54  89  54  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               92  62  92  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            86  45  84  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  87  57  88  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   94  48  94  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              89  54  90  39  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 87  53  88  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  93  61  92  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 92  53  92  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          93  59  93  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              88  58  88  51  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

BRICE