191
FNUS74 KEPZ 251841
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1241 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 MDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and windy conditions today will produce critical fire weather
for this afternoon. Winds from the west-southwest today are
expected to shift northwesterly tonight and stay breezy. For
tomorrow, another breezy day is expected but not as bad as today
with a bit more surface moisture, contributing to elevated-near
critical fire danger. For Saturday, moisture levels increase
further as a disturbance moves into the region, but winds will
be very breezy again. Lighter winds, and drier air return for
early next week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 24 to 29 mph with gusts to
                    around 44 mph.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 38 to 40 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (348300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........3      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............65     67     65
RH..............15     12     15
20 ft wind......SW 29  W 24   W 24
20 ft wind gust.44     37     37
Mix hgt (ft)....10200  9700   9700
Transport wind..SW 40  W 38   W 38
Haines index....3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..376    348    348
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 21 mph. Gusts up to 35
                    mph in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 29 mph becoming northwest 16 to 19
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (258800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (8100 knot-ft) overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      2      2      2      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............63     56     49     47     46     43
RH..............20     30     42     45     49     57
20 ft wind......W 21   W 21   NW 18  NW 14  NW 14  NW 12
20 ft wind gust.35     35     30     26     26     26
Mix hgt (ft)....8600   1600   600    600    600    600
Transport wind..W 29   W 24   NW 19  NW 19  NW 16  NW 16
Haines index....3      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..259    89     9      9      8      8
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to around 20
                    mph with gusts to around 35 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 22 mph increasing to around 31 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (45600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (142300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (259000
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........5         0         2         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............43        52        64        68
RH..............55        44        25        20
20 FT wind......NW 10G20  W 12G24   W 15G25   W 20G35
Mix hgt (ft)....1000      3000      6400      8500
Transport wind..NW 15     NW 15     W 22      W 31
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16        46        142       259
Ventrate Cat....POOR      FAIR      VYGD      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 50s. West winds
around 21 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s.
Northwest winds around 15 mph.
.MONDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest
winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...FEMO t
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.12/EPZ
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov