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Spot Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 161507
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
907 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly winds are expected to gradually become westerly this
afternoon with speeds topping out in the 10 to 15 MPH range. It
will be very dry today with min RH values dropping into the
lower-mid teens. Afternoon high will be a few degrees above
average beneath clear to mostly clear skies. Vent rates will be
good to very good. For tomorrow, temperatures will be a little
warm with a modest increase in winds.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 7 mph shifting to the
                    west 6 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 17 mph shifting to the west
                    around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (22600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (99400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13  13  13  4   4   4   5   5   5
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............49  54  58  62  65  66  67  69  67
RH..............34  27  23  19  16  16  14  13  14
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.18  18  18  15  15  15  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4
Transp wind dir.N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  10  10  10  10  14  14  14  14
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..23  61  61  61  61  99  99  99  99
Ventrate Cat....PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 11 mph shifting to the north
                    around 8 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 16 mph shifting to the north
                    around 13 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (80200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   6   6   2   2   2   2   2   2   5   5   5
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............67  64  58  54  53  52  51  50  50  48  48  48
RH..............15  15  19  22  24  25  27  29  28  31  30  29
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  10  10  10  8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.22  22  22  18  18  18  15  15  15  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  16  16  16  14  14  14  14  13  13  13  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..80  80  80  80  7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming west 8 to
                    12 mph with gusts to around 23 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 8 mph shifting to the west 9 to 18
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (79200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (118300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   8   8   0   0   0   1   1   1   3   3   3
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............47  48  52  58  64  67  70  72  74  74  74  73
RH..............30  29  26  22  17  15  13  12  11  11  10  10
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   4   4   4   8   8   8   12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  12  12  12  18  18  18  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   18  18  18  18
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10  10  10  10  79  79  79  79  118 118 118 118
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD VGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds around 9 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Chris Powers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.1/EPZ
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
