673
FXUS64 KEWX 010523
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The upper level flow over TX this afternoon is nearly zonal with a
slight anticyclonic curvature. The low level flow is from the
southeast. A warm, moist airmass remains in place over our CWA with
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s. Low
level flow will continue from the southeast tonight resulting in
another warm night. Lows will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Skies will become mostly cloudy and patchy fog will develop over the
eastern half of the area. Patchy drizzle The upper flow will turn
southwesterly tonight leading to a more active pattern. Initially,
we may see convection in the southeasterly flow off the Gulf with
showers and thunderstorms developing over the Coastal Plains and
spreading into the I-35 Corridor during the afternoon. Then late
afternoon and early evening a dryline will approach our western area
and will be likely to generate additional storms. These storms will
move off the dryline toward the east. There may  be sufficient
bouyancy and vertical wind shear for strong to severe storms. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat. SPC has
included most of our CWA in the Marginal risk for Wednesday.
Convection should continue into the overnight period
Wednesday/Thursday while moving toward the east. The best chances
for convection will be across our northern area. There will also be
sufficient deep moisture to produce locally heavy rain across this
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Our active stretch of weather is expected to continue through the
late week period as southwesterly mid-level flow continues, with
several shortwave troughs rippling through the long wave flow through
the end of the week. Warm, muggy, and let`s call it what it is,
disgusting mornings will continue as gulf moisture remains in play
through the late week period. Recent wetting rains have added
moisture to the soil and will contribute to the elevated humidity as
well.

At this juncture, Friday evening and night looks like our best chance
at storms, some of which could be strong. The primary hazards would
be large hail and damaging winds, in addition to locally heavy
rainfall. For now, PoPs are in the 20-30% range but that may increase
if confidence in this scenario increases as higher res guidance gets
into the window/timeframe of this potential event.

Beyond Friday, things start to trend drier and hotter, as the storm
track starts to shift further north of our CWA. Despite continued
southwesterly flow aloft, a dryline will start to sharpen up and push
eastward each afternoon Monday-Tuesday, along with westerly
downsloping flow from the surface to about 700mb each day. This would
result in compressional warming over much of the area as highs surge
into the 90s region wide, and even some triple digits over the Rio
Grande Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR CIGs are currently developing over the area. They will fall to
IFR in the next few hours. CIGs slowly rise on Wednesday to MVFR in
the morning and VFR in the afternoon. SHRA/TSRA will develop in the
afternoon and have maintained PROB30s. The SHRA/TSRA should continue
during the evening into the overnight hours and have introduced PROBs
for then. The SHRA/TSRA will probably disrupt the low CIGs Wednesday
night, however went with MVFR prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  85  72  86 /  60  50  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  84  71  85 /  50  50  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  86  72  87 /  50  40  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            70  84  70  84 /  70  40  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  95  75  95 /  20  10   0  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  84  70  84 /  60  50  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             70  85  70  89 /  50  30  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  85  70  86 /  50  40  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  84  73  85 /  40  40  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  85  72  87 /  50  40  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           73  86  73  88 /  40  40  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...17
Aviation...04