Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
518 FXUS62 KFFC 272350 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 750 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Key Messages: - On and off cloud cover continues through the afternoon. Very light and sparse showers possible across NE GA. - Lows in the 50s and 60s, high in the 80s tomorrow. Short term is dominated by 500 mb ridging sitting over the top of the CWA with surface high off the coast pumping moisture into the area. Some very light showers will be possible in NE GA this afternoon though very little in the way of rain should reach the surface. Cloud cover should fade some tonight, though some lower clouds may build in as moisture pools in the morning across the metro and NE GA. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with highs tomorrow in the 80s. RHs should remain out of fire wx concerns thanks to moisture advection, despite strong afternoon mixing. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Monday morning through next Friday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Key Messages: - A warming trend this week should result in warmest temperatures of 2024 thus far. - The best rain chance this week are expected in northern Georgia Monday night and Tuesday. Warming Temperatures this Week: The primary story and area of greatest confidence in the forecast remains the trend towards warmer temperatures this week. Guidance from the EPS and GEFS continue to strongly favor ridging over the Southeast through the end of this week. There may be a slight weakening of the ridge on Tuesday as a weak shortwave move through the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, but the ridge should regain its strength by Thursday. The day to day temperature fluctuations between Wednesday and Friday are subtle, but Thursday continues to look like the warmest day this week (due to the ridge axis being overhead). The overall odds of 90 degree temperatures remain relatively unchanged over the last 24 hours, with the NBM projecting 40 to 70% odds of 90 degree temperatures along and south of Interstate 85 Wednesday through Friday. These temperatures should be the warmest readings of 2024 so far. Surface dewpoints should be in the 58 to 63 degree range Wednesday through Friday and this should keep heat indices within a couple degrees of the actual temperatures. Rain Chances, Monday through Friday: The best rain potential this week continues to looks like it will occur Monday night and Tuesday as a weak upper level trough tracks through the region. Trends in the model guidance over the last couple of days have indicated the best rain potential (30-70% rain chances) with this system in northern Georgia, and this continues to be the case with the most recent model runs. The majority of EPS and GEFS members are producing rain in the Atlanta Metro, though amounts are light. Given the expected convective and scattered nature of the rainfall these lighter amounts are to be expected. Real rainfall totals will likely show a broader range, with quite a few locations getting nothing and few seeing totals closer to an inch. MUCAPE values in the 750-1500 J/kg range, marginal shear (bulk 0-6 km shear near 20kt), and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates between 6.5 and 7.0 C/km indicate some potential for stronger storms Tuesday afternoon. At this time though the risk for widespread severe weather remains low. Between Wednesday and Friday the best rain chances in the Eastern U.S. should occur along a line from Texas to the Ohio Valley. This rainfall should occur in the interface region between a trough in the northern Plains and upper level ridge over the Southeast. Subsidence from the ridge should limit the precipitation potential in Georgia. Thus most Georgians should experience dry weather during this period. If isolated showers or storms do develop, they would be most probably in northern Georgia during the afternoon and evening hours. Our forecast rain chances for all three days range from 5 to 25%. Albright && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR ceilings expected to continue through the TAF period. Will see some increased clouds over night but ceilings should stay VFR. Winds will stay out of the SE in the 6-12kt range. May see some higher gust to 18kt Sun afternoon. No precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs expected. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 57 80 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 60 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 55 75 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 60 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 58 79 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 60 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 60 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 60 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 61 82 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...01