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000
FXUS63 KFGF 121128
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
628 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday
  afternoon and early evening over northeast North Dakota.

- An active pattern mid next week, with a 60% chance for areas
  to see over an inch in a three day period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

We have noticed ground fog near Devils Lake this morning, but
that should only last for the next several hours as temperatures
begin to warm and winds start to increase out of the northwest.
Otherwise, expect a quiet day and temperatures in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Ridge will continue to move into the region today and into this
weekend. Mostly clear skies across eastern North Dakota and
northwestern Minnesota has helped bring down temperatures into the
upper 20s to lower 30s. A few clouds are working their way along the
back edge of the upper level low pressure system propagating east of
the Great Lakes. Expect calm conditions and temperatures in the
upper 50s to lower 60s today.

Upper level ridging continues to play a dominate role in our
weather pattern throughout the weekend. We are on the northern
extent of the ridge, with zonal flow moving through southern Canada.
A brief wave works its way through Manitoba and Ontario late tonight
into Saturday morning bringing a brief shot of precipitation for
areas along and north of Highway 2. Ridge breaks down and propagates
eastward early next week with southwesterly flow setting up across
the central and northern plains. This helps increase chances for
precipitation over multiple days.

Underneath the upper level ridging temperatures warm well above
normal, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Warmest temperatures
will be located in the southern Red River Valley. The warmest
temperatures are expected Saturday through Monday. Low level winds
around the 925-850mb level are 15-25kts Saturday afternoon in
northeastern North Dakota. Mixing in the boundary layer is strong,
with lapse rates of 8-9.5 C/km. Sustained winds at the surface reach
20mph, with occasional gusts to 25mph in the afternoon and early
evening in northeastern North Dakota. This combined with minimum
relative humidity values in the mid 20s bring near critical fire
weather conditions for northeastern North Dakota. Outside of this
area minimum relative humidity values are in the mid 20s, but winds
will be lighter around 5-10mph. This limits the fire weather
conditions for southeastern North Dakota and northwestern/west
central Minnesota. Lower relative humidity values are expected
Sunday and Monday, but fire weather concerns are less than 10% as
winds will continue to be 5-10mph during the afternoon and evening
hours.

As we approach mid week our southwesterly flow brings increased
precipitation chances to the northern plains. Ensembles vary with
the track of systems out of the flow, with 30% indicating a track
through eastern North Dakota while 70% track the system through
central Minnesota. Both bring rain, but a track through eastern
North Dakota increases our instability and chances for thunderstorms
through the area. The southern track through Minnesota brings rain,
with isolated chances for thunderstorms as instability remains in
the warm sector (central Minnesota). None the less, rainfall will be
multiple days, with three day totals (Tuesday through Thursday) of
over an inch being 60%. We will continue to monitor the track the
precipitation chances and any thunderstorm risk that may approach
the region mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions continue for GFK, TVF, BJI, and FAR through the
TAF period. DVL has been experiencing patchy ground fog
reducing visibility at times to 2SM. This chance continues
through 15z before returning to FEW skies. Winds are light and
variable, but turn toward the northwest by 15z through 00z. Post
00z we see light and variable winds once again before turning
toward the south near the end of the TAF period. Skies remain
SKC to FEW throughout the day, with BKN clouds for DVL, TVF,
BJI, and GFK near 6z. End of the TAF period DVL sees some LLWS
as a front works its way through that area towards the Red
River Valley.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Spender