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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211735
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1035 AM MST Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue for the start of the
upcoming week. Cooler, more unsettled conditions look to return by
the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Not much to talk about this morning with zonal flow
well established across the region. While we remain fairly
cloudless this morning, expect some clouds to develop through
this afternoon, especially along the ridge lines of the higher
terrain. Light winds will become a little gusty through the
afternoon but still generally around 20 mph or less. Overall,
a beautiful way to start to a new week. Enjoy!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...through Tuesday...Zonal flow with
weak mid-level moisture will keep warm temperatures, occasional
high-clouds, and typical afternoon breezes in the forecast
through the first few days of the upcoming week.

Wednesday through Saturday...A closed-low over the Pacific begins
to make it`s approach by the middle of next week. As it draws
closer, heights begin to fall across Arizona and temperatures
follow suit, with afternoon highs falling by 20-30 deg F by the
end of the week.

Southwesterly winds also look to be a bit more breezy during the
afternoons, but gusts are largely expected to remain under 20-30
mph. Overall moisture with the system looks to be limited and mainly
concentrated in the mid-levels. Thus, a couple high-based showers
and possibly a thunderstorm look probable for Thursday. Brief gusty,
erratic winds will be possible with any stronger shower, given the
low-level dry air. That being said, the vast majority of the area
will remain dry.

The only exception to the above looks to be Saturday, as a secondary
more powerful trough moves into the southwest. Stronger southwest
winds look possible during the afternoon on Saturday as the trough
approaches. Moisture also looks to be a bit more plentiful with this
second system, however amounts will likely still be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 21/18Z through Monday 22/18Z...VFR conditions
persist with sunny skies this morning seeing FEW to SCT cloud
development during the afternoon. Light surface winds today with
a few modest afternoon gusts remaining below 20 kts. Breezy SW
winds after 17Z tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Monday 22/18Z through Wednesday 24/18Z...VFR conditions
continue. Breezy daytime SW surface winds at 10-20 kts, gusting
20-30 kts will become light each evening. The strongest winds of
the period are forecast for Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warm and dry conditions both
days. Light and variable winds Sunday becoming southwest 15 to 25
mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry and turning cooler each day.
Gusty southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40
mph each day. A slight chance of showers arrives Thursday. Wetting
rains are not likely.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Humphreys
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff