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000
FXUS64 KFWD 222313
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Tuesday Night/

A quiet evening is expected across North and Central Texas with
mostly clear skies and cool but dry conditions. Southerly winds
will pull moisture northward later tonight and a band of low
clouds will begin to spread north out of the Hill Country up the
I-35 corridor early Tuesday morning. These should scatter out
through late morning leaving a mostly sunny afternoon with high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Farther to the northwest, we`ll be watching an approaching cold
front that is likely to slow down/stall just outside of our area.
Ahead of this front, a moderately unstable atmosphere will
develop by late afternoon with steep mid level lapse rates and
abundant sub-cloud layer dry air. Convergence along the front
during the late afternoon will likely be sufficient for at least
isolated storms to develop. These will mainly occur off to the
northwest of our area, but may drift into our northwest counties
after dark. We`ll continue with some low PoPs across our northwest
to account for this. Given the steep lapse rates and low level
dry air, any storms that develop would pose a large hail and
damaging wind threat. Coverage of storms will decrease after dark
with most areas remaining precipitation free.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with current
trends remaining more than reasonable through the week and into
next weekend. Low-end potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will exist each day, with better chances starting on
Thursday and lasting through the weekend. While the overall
severe weather potential is low, there will still be the potential
for any of these storms to produce large hail and damaging winds.
Along with this, a gradual warming trend will result in afternoon
highs ranging in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the
60s and 70s. For more details, please see the previous discussion.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday Night Onward/

A strengthening mid level ridge over Texas and the Southern
Plains will maintain the warming trend across North and Central
Texas through the mid to late week period. Afternoon temperatures
will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday through
Friday, which will be near to slightly above normal for late
April. At the surface, a front will stall near or just north of
the Red River, providing low-end chances for thunderstorms across
the far north and northwest zones Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.
The ridge will work against convective attempts, however, keeping
coverage of storms isolated and POPs in the slight chance range.

The ridge will begin to weaken on Thursday as a shortwave trough
approaches from the west. The shortwave will cross the southern
Rockies during the day Thursday, eventually reaching West-Central
Texas Thursday evening. Thunderstorms will develop west of the
region in advance of the shortwave, with convection being focused
along a dryline stretching across the Big Country and Concho
Valley. Showers and storms will spread east across North & Central
Texas Thursday night through Friday morning as the shortwave
lifts northeast through the Southern and Central Plains. A few
severe storms will be possible, but with storms occurring mainly
overnight through Friday morning, a lack of instability should
help reduce the overall severe threat.

A lull in convective weather will be possible Friday afternoon
through Friday night, but a second shortwave will kick off another
round of thunderstorms on Saturday. Storms will initially be
isolated and focused along the dryline Saturday afternoon, keeping
the severe weather threat confined to the Big Country counties.
Large scale ascent will arrive as the shortwave crosses the Texas
Panhandle Saturday night, generating more widespread showers and
storms. The Saturday night convection will become focused along a
Pacific front, which will overtake the dryline as it pushes east
through the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday. Some
strong to severe storms will again be possible, but yet again the
time of day should preclude a more widespread severe weather
threat. Precipitation will exit to the east Sunday night into
Monday, but a stalling front may lead to additional rain chances
around the start of next week and the beginning of May.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through much of the period with continued
southerly winds around 10 kt tonight. Southerly winds will
increase and become gusty (18020G30KT) on Tuesday. There should be
a narrow band of MVFR cigs that spread north out of the Hill
Country early Tuesday morning that we`ll address with a TEMPO in
the latest TAF. Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  79  64  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
Waco                54  76  63  82  68 /   0   0   0   5   5
Paris               49  76  60  77  63 /   0   0  10  30  20
Denton              53  78  62  79  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
McKinney            54  77  63  79  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
Dallas              55  79  65  81  68 /   0   0   5  10  10
Terrell             52  76  62  80  65 /   0   0   5  10  10
Corsicana           54  78  64  82  67 /   0   0   0   5   5
Temple              53  77  63  82  66 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       53  82  62  82  66 /   0   0  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$