Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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830 FXUS64 KFWD 010914 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 414 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 213 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024/ /Through Thursday Morning/ Storms are currently straddling the Red River as an outflow boundary pushes south into North Texas. While this will greatly limit the severe weather potential, a few storms could be strong to marginally severe. The main concerns would be hail and gusty winds, though any opportunity for this will be brief. That is due to the aforementioned boundary that is undercutting their warm inflow, limiting their severe potential. These should weaken over the next few hours before dissipating entirely before sunrise. Our attention then turns to our next round of showers and thunderstorms that will start Wednesday afternoon and evening through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. This will be our best opportunity for scattered to more widespread severe weather as the latest hi-res guidance continues to reveal convective activity developing, then rapidly growing upscale into an MCS as it moves into our area. Our local storm environment will be conducive for severe weather in the form of large hail and damaging winds. Favorable deep layer shear, steep lapse rates, and instability will all be available for storms to work with as they develop and evolve. There is also low-end potential for tornadogenesis while storms remain more discrete and this potential will continue to exist should they develop into an organized linear structure through the overnight hours. That all being said, be sure to play close attention to the forecast through tomorrow afternoon and evening into Thursday. In addition to our severe weather potential is our flash flooding concerns for locations mainly along and south of I-20 where already saturated soils exist. Several waves of convective activity Wednesday into Thursday afternoon could reaggravate recent flooding issues. The latest 6-hour precipitation probabilities courtesy of the HREF show a medium chance (30-50%) of greater than 3 inches of rainfall for most of Central Texas. This can be used as a proxy for gauging flooding concerns, and confidence is increasing due to run to run consistency. Moreover, about 10% of the area could receive upwards of 5 inches of rain in a 6-hour span. The overall environment will be supportive of flash flooding on top of our antecedent conditions. Because of this,a Flood Watch is now being considered across this area through Thursday afternoon and will likely be issued before the morning update. Reeves && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Onward/ The overnight MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern and southern parts of our forecast area early Thursday morning, mainly the trailing stratiform portion of the MCS. There is about a 10% chance of backbuilding convection on the upshear flank of the system continuing through the morning in Central Texas. This would drastically increase and prolong the flood threat. There is a low probability of this occurring, but the impact of it is high enough that it is worth mentioning. A lull in convective activity is expected in the early afternoon Thursday as the MCS moves East before additional storms develop along a cold front and dryline late in the day. Convective initiation is expected near a triple point in western North Texas...consensus in the guidance generally has this taking place between Childress-Wichita Falls and as far south as Abilene. The convective mode will start as supercells that transition to outflow dominate clusters as they move into our forecast area overnight into Friday morning. All modes of severe weather will be possible with the supercells, but only a few strong to marginally severe wind gusts or hail stones will be possible once the storms become outflow dominant Thursday night. The cold front will then flutter near the area Friday with additional scattered storms developing along the boundary in the afternoon. Guidance has started to latch on to a stronger cold front moving down the Plains late Friday into Saturday, stalling in or near North Texas Saturday. One again...scattered storms are expected to develop along the boundary in the afternoon. The best chance for storms will be Saturday night and Sunday as a shortwave trough moves over the front. The front should then lift north and wash out, leaving our area precip-free and under the influence of a warm and humid airmass next week. Ensemble trends are still indicating the development of a strong mid-level ridge over the Gulf Coast in the middle and late parts of next week. This would result in a warming trend with highs in the 90s more likely than not (50-70% chance for most locations south of I-20) from Tuesday onward. Since surface moisture will not be significantly scoured, heat index values will become important next week...especially across Central and East Texas where heat index values in the upper 90s or even low 100s are possible next Wednesday-Thursday. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /Issued 213 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024/ /06z TAFs/ Concerns...MVFR/IFR Ceilings Through Wednesday Afternoon. VFR conditions currently prevail across all TAF sites but ceilings will begin to fall as we move through the morning hours on Wednesday. MVFR will creep northward as another stratus intrusion takes over North and Central Texas. These will reach Waco around 08-09z before making it to the D10 terminals around 11-12z this morning. There is a low chance (20-30%) for intermittent IFR ceilings through the morning across the D10, with better chances for IFR across Waco. Our other concern is the outflow boundary that is currently moving south toward the D10 terminals from the storms along the Red River. While this is not currently expected to impact the TAF sites, additional thunderstorm development along this boundary could increase the likelihood in brief northerly winds within the next several hours. Ceilings will improve through the afternoon hours, though conditions will be worth watching as convective activity increases through tomorrow evening. Details will be further refined regarding this thunderstorm potential in future TAF issuances. Reeves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 67 82 69 82 / 20 70 70 50 20 Waco 83 67 81 70 82 / 30 70 70 40 20 Paris 84 66 77 66 80 / 20 60 90 70 40 Denton 83 66 81 65 80 / 20 70 70 50 20 McKinney 83 67 79 67 81 / 20 70 80 60 20 Dallas 85 67 82 69 83 / 20 80 70 50 20 Terrell 84 67 80 67 81 / 20 80 90 60 30 Corsicana 85 68 81 70 83 / 20 80 90 50 30 Temple 82 67 81 70 82 / 40 60 50 30 20 Mineral Wells 82 67 84 67 81 / 20 70 60 40 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135-142>148-156>162-174-175. && $$