Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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251 FXUS63 KGRR 021925 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 325 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms into Friday - Mild with several chances for showers/storms && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms into Friday An upper level wave in the Upper Plains will track into the Western Great Lakes tonight. It takes on a negative tilt as it does. At the same time a low level jet will be tracking northeastward through Western Lower MI, generating lower level lift. Elevated instability will be present and PWAT values climb to well above normal levels at around 1.5 inches. Given the moisture, deep lift and presence of instability, showers and thunderstorms will become numerous tonight. High res models suggest several pockets of higher wind gusts could evolve overnight, but most indications are that they may struggle to reach severe criteria. The latest HRRR indicates the storms developing around Chicago will build northeast and into our CWA later this afternoon and into the evening. We did increase POPs accordingly. On Friday the front will be pushing eastward through the CWA by mid afternoon. Thus any shower/storm activity will decrease from west to east through the early to mid afternoon hours. At this time the instability is progged to be limited so severe weather is not anticipated. - Mild with several chances for showers/storms A persistent long wave trough over the Rockies will send a steady stream of short waves toward the Great Lakes through the period. Southwest winds aloft will also ensure that warm air flows across the cwa. Highs will be in the 70s throughout the period and nudge up to the 80 degree mark over the southwestern cwa Tuesday and Wednesday. Saturday will probably be dry. However, a short wave moving across the region may give us some showers and perhaps a storm Saturday night. Sunday looks dry, then another stronger wave arrives Monday night. Strong low pressure over the northern plains is progd to push a warm front north into the cwa late Monday night. We`ll likely see showers and storms develop along/ahead of the warm front with more development ahead of the trailing occluded front Tuesday. Showers are possible again Thursday as the Plains low finally moves over the state. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Low pressure moving toward the Great Lakes will push clouds over the terminals tonight. We`ll see high clouds this afternoon and perhaps a weak shower passing close to AZO around 18z. Otherwise, more showers/storms are expected tonight. Models show a fairly strong signal of MVFR/IFR moving across the terminals from northwest to southeast beginning around 07z at MKG and lasting roughly 5 hrs before returning to VFR. This also coincides with the showers/storms arriving and departing. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 With a low level jet track through the zones tonight the winds will be on the increase. They are currently progged to remain below criteria for small craft advisory so no headlines will be issued at this time. Outside of the winds increasing over the lake, gusty winds will accompany the showers and thunderstorms that track through Lower MI tonight. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJS/04 AVIATION...04 MARINE...MJS