Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 250823
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
423 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures this morning will give way to near 40 degrees
by this afternoon. It will remain breezy near the coast, but
strong wind gusts are not expected for power restoration
efforts underway. The latter half of the week is forecast to be
warmer than it has been, but that will also come with unsettled
weather. First low clouds and drizzle or showers will back in
from the Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Wednesday. Then a coastal
storm will move through the Gulf of Maine and bring rain to
areas near the coast to close out the work week. Dry weather
likely returns for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cirrus will stick with us for much of the day today as nearly
stationary low pressure broadens and spins off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Plenty of dry through the column, and don’t anticipate
additional clouds outside of this deck. Mixing height will
expand today, but low level winds are on the lighter side. Thus
while there will be dry air to tap into aloft, not anticipating
any surprise lower end RH values today. The aforementioned low
will contribute to continuing ENE winds today, and this should
keep it a little cool to feel. Still, highs should lift into the
upper 30s to around 40 for much of the area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight, cirrus should trend east. There may be a brief window
of clear sky tonight, especially for the west. But, we will
begin to trade this high cloud for lower decks towards the coast
late. This will ride in on advecting moisture in the low levels
through Tuesday. Because of the high positioned to the north,
ENE winds will continue bringing in cool sfc temps compared to
those around 900mb where a very sharp inversion develops.

With increasing low clouds, this inversion, and dry air aloft,
will need to watch sfc RH as drizzle looks to form. This will
primarily move in during the late afternoon, and could contain
pockets of freezing drizzle as well. This could impact the
Tuesday evening commute for interior locations with a trace of
ice. Will continue to monitor temperature trends, but for now
the more notable icing may be towards the higher terrain below
3000 ft despite low QPF continuing to trend. Will continue to
msg the potential for slick travel through the western Maine
foothills Tuesday and into the night.

Towards the Midcoast and central ME, better moisture profiles
will allow more in the way of rain showers to form late and into
the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: Region will largely remain downstream of a deep trof
across the central CONUS. Cut off upper low over the northwester
Atlantic will also be drifting around and slowly sinking southeast.
By the end of the week the trof will be dominating weather...with
more wet weather expected.

Impacts: Primary concern will be slippery travel Wed if freezing
drizzle materializes in the foothills and mtns.

Forecast Details: Rather unsettled looking in the
extended...which is really just an extension of the very wet
March so far.

Upper low responsible for the Plains blizzard will shear out as
it lifts northeast...leaving our local area under WAA aloft but
lacking the deep moisture necessary for steady precip. Forecast
soundings by Wed suggest weak lift and an unsaturated snow
growth zone...pointing towards drizzle. Whether it ends up being
drizzle or very light showers...the QPF will be light. More of a
concern will be interior temps hovering near freezing later Wed.
This may make for some slippery travel in the foothills and
mtns until warmer surface air can creep into the area.

At some point Wed night a weak front will push into the forecast
area. I do not anticipate the front making much progress thru
the area. This is because a southern stream S/WV trof is
forecast to initiate cyclogenesis along the southern end of the
frontal boundary. In our area the front will tend to retrograde
westward as WAA increases northeast of the newly formed low
pressure. Just how far west the boundary makes it will determine
how wet to expect it Fri. Rain will be most likely near the
coast as a result...with a sharp cut off to the west. QPF around
1 inch is possible along the coast.

A rather flat trof...nearly zonal flow...sets up to close out
the month.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today and into Tuesday. Lower decks of MVFR are
expected to push onshore come Tuesday, which may also include
drizzle and rain. This could also cause reduced visibility mid
Tuesday afternoon along coastal terminals as well as spreading
inland towards the evening.


Long Term...Areas of IFR conditions are expected to develop thru
the day Wed as low clouds move in off the Gulf of ME. Drizzle is
likely to develop and lower VIS as well. Until the front clears
the area sometime Fri...IFR conditions are likely to linger
locally...especially near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions continue through Tuesday with waves
5+ ft and gusts up to 30 kt. Only escape may be Penobscot Bay
which is missing the wind fetch for waves, although it still may
see some swell from broadening low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic
coast.


Long Term...SCA conditions are expected to start the
period...and may linger thru much of the forecast. Winds gusting
25 to 30 kt early Wed will diminish...but seas are forecast to
remain at or above 5 ft outside of the bays thru Fri. Northwest
winds Fri are then forecast to increase to around 25 kt
gusts...becoming near gale force by Sat.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro


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