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000
FXUS61 KGYX 150211 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1011 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND IS QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING SLOWER IN
AREAS WHERE THERE IS CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE ADJUSTED UP
IN SOME AREAS BECAUSE OF THIS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD GRIDS WERE DERIVED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE WHICH REFLECTS
THE WIDE VARIABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
CLEAR SKIES...WHICH WILL SUPPORT PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES,...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE ADJUSTED
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY START TO WED EXPECTED...AS WARM FNT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SHWRS ACROSS NH BY MID
AFTERNOON. RNFL WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN ME BY THE EVENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH A QUICK PASSAGE OF
OCCLUSION. QPF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH AROUND A
QUARTER TO LOCALLY HALF INCH. AS LOW PRES MOVES EWD...FLOW ALOFT
TURNS WLY AND DOWNSLOPING WILL CLEAR OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOME
SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH WARMING ALOFT AND SOME SUN TO START THE DAY...WED SHOULD BE
MUCH WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...AS OPPOSED TO A SLOW STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60 TODAY. WITH WARM
FNT AND CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MILD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST FACING...UPSLOPE...HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...MIXING VALUES
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WINDS ALSO ALIGN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT VERY GUSTY
WIND CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF MUCH
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE A WARM BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WITH READINGS HITTING THE LOWER 70S FROM THE NH/MA BORDER
TO ABOUT WISCASSET.

SUFFICIENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ONCE AGAIN
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHC FOR SHOWERS...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE MTNS.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO POP UP.

ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS
SYSTEM AND EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL TRACK BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON WED...VFR IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOWERING CONDS PSBL BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS...BEGINNING ACROSS WRN NH AND SPREADING EWD.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.
WARM FNT CROSSING THE WATERS WED WILL INCREASE SLY FLOW TO NEAR 25
KT GUSTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT.

LONG TERM...SCA TO MINIMAL GALES LIKELY THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE REPLACED ON WED BY INCREASINGLY
WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER. A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
RAIN SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES