Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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672 FXUS64 KHGX 100458 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1158 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are developing over the central and north central portions of Texas ahead and along a cold front this afternoon. These storms are expected to continue east southeastward and make it into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region later this evening into early tonight. Although the cap still remains fairly strong for much of Southeast Texas, it is expected to weaken later today. Forecast soundings still show CAPE values of over 4000 J/kg, in particular for areas north of I-10. In addition, they indicate SFC-6km shear values of 45-55 kts, steep mid level, and DCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg. PWs will increase to around 1.8 inches this evening and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s. Overall, any storms that do make it into the aforementioned area has the potential to remain strong to severe and could result in large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either. One thing to note is the small potential for a few vort maxes to move across Southeast Texas early this evening, which could lead to locally driven, isolated storms...if they manage to overcome the cap. SPC now has placed an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3 of 5) north of a line from Washington County into northern Liberty County. A Slight Risk (threat level 2 of 5) exists southward of there to roughly along the I-10 corridor and a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) exists for the rest of the area except around Matagorda Bay. Be prepared and have multiple ways of receiving warnings! Storms are expected to have either dissipated or moved eastward and away from our region before midnight, ahead of the next cold frontal passage. The front is progged to reach the coastal areas during the late night hours. On Friday, tranquil but breezy conditions are expected as gusty north to northeast winds develops in the wake of the front. Slightly "cooler and drier" air will filter in across the area and result in partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 80s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. The lows Friday night into early Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Though low levels will be drier on Saturday than they have been the past several days, we still anticipate some mid level moisture & cloud cover streaming overhead. Some of the deterministic models show some decent shortwave energy and lift passing across the southern parts of the area, so went ahead and included some low POPs in case we see some associated sprinkles or light rain. Heading into Saturday night and Sunday, the remnant boundary in the Gulf will move back inland as a warm front. With it comes some deep Gulf moisture as PW`s climb to around 2.2" across a good part of the region. A zone of low level speed convergence sets up and combined with additional passing upper impulses we anticipate increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage on Mother`s Day. Somewhat similar setup for Monday as mid-upper trof makes its way across the Southern Plains with a series of embedded vorts continuing to flow on its southern periphery. Wouldn`t be surprised to see another 1-4" of rain across the area (highest I-10 northward) before all is said and done. And with the deep moisture and potential mesoscale boundaries/convergent zones you`d keep an eye out for potential localized higher totals. Grounds are already saturated from last weeks rain, and additional heavy rain falling in a shorter time period will be prone to quickly runoff. So, it`s a forecast worth watching this weekend. With the passage of the mid-upper trof to the east, we`ll see some drier condition on Tue with some subtle ridging. That, however, won`t last too long. Ridging will slide to the east and we again transition to a messier wsw flow aloft as the next western trof takes shape, a continued onshore llvl flow off the Gulf, and eventually a slow moving front sagging closer to the area later next week. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Scattered thunderstorms have dissipated, with north winds now beginning to develop behind an advancing boundary. Periods of MVFR to IFR cigs are expected overnight with drier air behind the front only just beginning to filter in. In general, the risk for IFR conditions will be higher to the south of the I-10 corridor. Moderate north winds develop tomorrow morning as cigs lift to VFR. Sustained winds of 10-15 knots with some gusts in excess of 20 knots are possible tomorrow afternoon. Winds become light and variable tomorrow night. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A cold front will make its way into the upper Texas coastal waters late tonight and early Friday morning. There may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, but the vast majority of storms will dissipate further inland before reaching the waters. Areas of haze/fog should improve after the wind shift. North and northeast winds in the wake of the front will swing back to the southeast by early Sunday as the front moves back inland as a warm front. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Sunday and Monday. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 83 65 82 / 40 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 72 88 68 84 / 30 10 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 75 84 73 80 / 10 0 0 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....47 AVIATION...Cady MARINE...47