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000
FXUS62 KILM 251636
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

AT 10Z/6AM ILM ASOS REPORTED 49 DEGREES WHICH CRACKS A 46 YEAR OLD
RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 25TH. AT 10Z FLO REPORTED 45
DEGREES SMASHING THEIR OLD RECORD SET BACK IN THAT SAME YEAR 1967.
WHILE LBT HAS NOT AS YET ESTABLISHED AN EXTENSIVE CLIMATIC DATA-
BASE...AT 6AM A CHILLY 43 DEGREES WAS REPORTED. ALSO AT 10Z CRE
REPORTS 46 DEGREES WHICH BREAKS A RECORD LOW SET 62 YEARS AGO. THE
PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SPARKLING DAY ON TAP TO KICK-OFF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND UNDER A COOL
START THIS MORNING...AS AN AIR MASS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN CONTINUES
TO FAN ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AT AROUND 25 PERCENT. NORTH
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY AS DRY SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FORCES THE CANADIAN
HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ONLY CLOUDS
EXPECTED TODAY...POSSIBLY SHREDS OF ICE CRYSTALS AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS CIRRUS IS PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...PRESENTLY SCOOTING AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE READINGS THIS MORNING...BRINGING MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S
FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AROUND 21Z/5PM. THE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE TODAY SHOULD FOLLOW-SUIT TONIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL UNDER A CRISP AND DRY CANADIAN AIR-MASS. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY MAY BE REALIZED EARLY
BEFORE DAYBREAK...AS THE MAJORITY OF DATA SUGGEST H7-H5 MOISTURE
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 9Z/4AM...WHICH MAY
LEVEL OUT OR BUMP UP TEMPERATURE READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S UNDER WARM END OF MAY
SUNSHINE. OVERALL TEMPS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP TO NORMAL AS
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY AND THEN OFF SHORE BY LATE MONDAY.

MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINOR PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS IN THE DEEP NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE RISE
IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES BACK UP
ABOVE AN INCH BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE ALL IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
A WARMER AND MOISTER RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN THROUGH AREA LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL
JUST COUNT ON CU DEVELOPMENT AND A FEW LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.

A SLIGHT SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY WILL CUT OFF
THE CAA PRODUCING A RISING TREND IN 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S AND
CLOSER TO 80 THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BREAK
THE 80 MARK MOST PLACES BY MONDAY MAKING THEIR WAY BACK UP TOWARD
NORMAL AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODIFY ALSO ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP. WILL KEEP WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BUT
BY MON NIGHT EXPECT FURTHER MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINT
TEMPS BACK UP FROM THE 40S ON SUNDAY CLOSER TO 60 MON NIGHT.
THEREFORE EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS MON NIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING CLOSE TO
590 DEM WITH RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WED AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEAKENING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE PRODUCING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF SHORE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO
DEVELOP BUT VERY DRY MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ANY CLOUDS QUITE FLAT. BASICALLY EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED
THROUGH FRI. SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
OCEAN AIR INLAND. THE ONLY CHC OF PCP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ON TUES BEFORE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON
TAP FOR THE PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEING THE
EXPECTED WIND SHIFTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME PREDOMINATELY NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS BY
MID MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12:30 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

CHOPPY NORTH WIND WAVES WILL SETTLE TODAY AS WINDS BECOME NW TO WNW
AND EASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SE WAVES OF 2 FT AT 8-9
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS TO KEEP
SEAS A BIT PITCHED-UP AT TIMES. THIS LONG WAVE PERIOD PORTION OF
THE WAVE SPECTRUM IS ON A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AND A NORTH WIND
SURGE MAY BRING WINDS TO 13 TO 17 KT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR TSTMS EXPECTED ON THE 0-20NM WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER OFF SHORE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUES. LIGHTER AND
MORE VARIABLE NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
BACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY BY
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A SLIGHTLY LONGER WAVE
8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL WILL KEEP OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT...DOMINATED MORE BY THE SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...SUMMER LIKE PATTERN SETS UP THROUGH MID WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFF SHORE KEEPING A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS. GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
WEAK WITH WINDS REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT RISE EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISE JUST OVER 3 FT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RGZ