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000
FXUS61 KILN 231737
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
137 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather persists for most of the day before rain moves
through the area this evening ahead of a cold front.
Temperatures cool off behind the front on Wednesday.
Temperatures moderate by the end of the week as southerly flow
redevelops.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A surface low is centered near the northern shore of Lake
Superior, with a surface high over the southeastern US. A broad
warm sector is in place across the Ohio Valley, with boundary
layer SSW flow, and deep mixing expected in a relatively dry
air mass.

Ongoing forecast looks mainly on track. Have made some slight
upward adjustments to winds, and downward adjustments to
dewpoints, but no significant changes were made. Precip timing
ahead of the initial wave is appearing slightly slower on recent
model runs, so overall timing in the forecast was slowed by an
hour or two.

Previous discussion >
High clouds have persisted tonight which has kept any frost
potential minimal. Lows also have remained fairly mild due to clouds
and developing southerly flow ahead of a cold front encroaching
from the north.

The aforementioned cold front continues approaching the Ohio Valley
from the northwest today. Southwesterly winds increase in the
strengthening gradient ahead of the front through the day.
Diurnal mixing may result in dew points remaining fairly low
today thanks to dry air aloft. The combo of low dew points and
increasing winds could result in some elevated fire danger late
this morning into the early afternoon. Moisture will eventually
increase on the southerly flow giving way to rain chances late
in the afternoon into the evening. Forecast highs range from the
upper 50s to the north to the upper 60s south of the Ohio
River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A surface cold front will push southeast through the Ohio Valley
Tuesday evening. Rain is expected ahead the front. Thunder chances
remain low since instability is not forecast to be present. QPF is
also on the low side since PWATs and forcing are not overly high.
Southwesterly winds shift to the west after FROPA. Rain chances and
temperatures drop behind the front. Forecast lows are in the 40s.

Surface high pressure builds in from the northwest on Wednesday.
Cool, northerly winds advect in cooler air thereby suppressing highs
in the middle 50s north of I-70 to the middle 60s south of the Ohio
River. Some clouds persist in the morning before giving way to more
sunshine by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clouds will scatter out Wednesday night as high pressure builds into
the central/eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Winds will
gradually diminish, allowing for a setup for frost and/or freezing
conditions. Northern areas will see the highest threat with a lesser
threat along and south of the Ohio River. Lows will fall into the
lower 30s north to the upper 30s south.

On Thursday, after a cold start, plenty of sunshine is expected as
the center of the high moves east to New England. Sunshine and a
modifying airmass will warm temperatures into the upper 50s north to
the upper 60s south.

A pattern change will be in the offing as we head into Thursday
night and Friday. A mid level ridge will move east into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Once we get on the back side of this ridge, a
warm front will move northeast into the region. This front will
bring an increase in moisture along with an enhanced low level jet.
The result will be increasing chance for pcpn (showers, perhaps a
few rumbles of thunder). After lows in the lower to mid 40s,
increasing southerly flow will boost temperatures into the upper 60s
to the lower 70s on Friday.

For Friday night into Saturday, the warm front will northeast into
the Great Lakes. Pcpn ongoing Friday night will diminish on Saturday
as the region becomes warm sectored. After lows in the upper 50s to
the lower 60s, highs on Saturday will warm into the 75 to 80 degree
range.

The remainder of the weekend may be relatively dry as we remain warm
sectored with just a low chance of a shower or storm. Temperatures
will further warm into the upper 70s to the lower/mid 80s.

By Monday, a mid level trough will finally make in roads into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, pushing a cold front southeast into the
region. This will bring an uptick in showers and thunderstorms as
the front interacts with an unstable airmass. Temperatures will drop
some on Monday due to clouds and pcpn. Highs will range from the
lower 70s northwest to near 80 southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will start the TAF period. Winds are about as
gusty as they will get today, with some gusts to around 30 knots
expected. Most of the gusts will be in the 24-28 knot range.

A band of rain will move into the area, with rain expected for a
period of a few hours at each TAF site. The rain should be
mainly VFR, with some occasional MVFR visibilities possible,
particularly at KDAY.

After the rain moves out, winds will switch to the west and
become a little bit lighter. MVFR ceilings are expected to build
into the area, with the thicker ceilings at the Columbus and
Dayton airports. A brief period of IFR is possible at KDAY,
though not in the TAFs as of now.

MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR from southwest to northeast
on Wednesday morning, with winds switching to the northwest.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hatzos