464
FXUS63 KIWX 070017
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
817 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
  Damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes are
  possible in any severe storms that develop. Heavy rain and
  minor flooding is possible.

- Severe weather is possible again late Wednesday afternoon into
  the overnight, especially south of US 30. Damaging winds,
  hail, and localized flooding are the primary threats.
  Confidence is low at this time.

- Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the
  weekend. Highs Friday through Sunday will be in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Powerhouse upper wave over the cntrl Rockies will close off across
the wrn Dakotas before spinning out through the Great Lakes Thu-Fri.
Downstream warm sector will broaden north into the OH valley
tomorrow and support decaying plains leftovers Tue morning. Cloud
debris and potential clearing in wake of morning activity will
dictate possible late day svr risk but destabilization likely
hindered here and which subdues overall svr risk.

Ewd pinwheeling upper low and attendant cold front will progress
into wrn areas Wed evening and ewd overnight. Strong/sharp return
flow ahead of this along with proximity of sfc warm frontal zone
general south of US24 may pose a resultant higher risk but potential
outflow spoiler remnant from dy1 further south may squelch that risk.
Nevertheless high chance to low likely pops retained in more
favorable periods.

Thereafter cool and showery as wrn flank of elongating upper low
holds back through the srn lakes, reinforced by secondary
disturbances digging down across the lakes Sat and again late
Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 807 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

A low level ridge axis extending from central Ontario to the
eastern Great Lakes will continue to shift across the eastern
Great Lakes tonight. This will allow gradual veering low level
flow into Tuesday and a northward migration to low level warm
front across central US. Broad warm, moist advection ahead of
this feature will lead to band of showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm in the 14Z-17Z timeframe. A brief lull in
rain chances is possible behind this leading line, but
conditions are expected to destabilize again during the
afternoon Tuesday with additional scattered thunderstorm
development. Still some question as to the coverage of these
storms, but confidence is high enough to warrant a VCTS mention
at this time for much of the afternoon. The potential does exist
for a strong to severe storm with gusty winds and hail.

In terms of cigs, VFR conditions are expected for tonight, but a
brief window for some MVFR cigs is expected Tuesday morning
through around midday accompanying the strong moisture advection
from the south. By afternoon these cigs should mix out to VFR,
with any additional MVFR or IFR conditions tied into any
stronger thunderstorms. East-southeast winds to begin the period
will veer south on Tuesday with gusts to around 20 knots
possible.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Marsili