000
FXUS64 KJAN 180819
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS GOTTEN AN EARLY START AS DECENT
ACTIVITY HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST SECTIONS OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR SINCE 06Z. THIS IS FOCUSED IN A REGION OF THETA E ADV
ALONG WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SFC BOUNDARY
SITUATED JUST TO THE NW. ADDITIONALLY...ASCENT IN NEARING THE REGION
AS A DECENT S/WV DROPS ESE FROM EASTERN OK. OVERALL...GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH DEPICTING THE SPECIFICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PERTURBED WX PATTERN AND TONIGHT IS NO DIFFERENT. THE EURO LOOKS TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH THE GFS FOLLOWING JUST
BEHIND. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA TO SEE THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY AND THIS FITS RECENT
TRENDS AND HOW THIS EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TODAY.
WILL BUMP POPS UP FOR THIS AREA TO AROUND 70% WITH A BIG FOCUS OF
THE PRECIP TO OCCUR BEFORE MIDDAY. STILL...THERE WILL BE DECENT
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR FOR EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN SECTIONS (HWY 82) WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE PRECIP
POTENTIAL AND WILL FOLLOW GUID FOR THAT AREA. MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL
BE THAT THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE ROBBING THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADV.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS EARLY START TO THE PRECIP AND
HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH MID/UPPER 80S EXPECTED. GFS
GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS WELL AND ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE IN
RESPONSE TO WHERE THE MAIN PRECIP AXIS IS EXPECTED.

AS FOR THE STRONG/SVR STORM POTENTIAL TODAY...POTENTIAL IS LOOKING
VERY LIMITED. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE POOR LAPSE RATES AND LOW END
INSTABILITY AS THE AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AND BUILD SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER CONVECTION. THE CAVEAT TO THAT IS
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING S/WV.
HOWEVER...MODEL DATA IS SHOWING THAT THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL RELAX
BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE YOU CAN NEVER RULE OUT A STRONG STORM THIS
TIME OF YEAR WHEN CONVECTION EXISTS...I WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THIS RISK TODAY BASED ON THE SEVERAL NEGATIVE ELEMENTS SUPPORTING
STRONGER STORMS. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A THREAT IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS SOME POTENTIAL LOOKS TO EXIST UNTIL MIDDAY FOR SOME TRAINING OF
STORMS.

THERE WILL BE SOME CHANGE TO THE FORECAST (FROM WHAT HAS BEEN PREV
ADVERTISED) AS THE PREV THINKING OF LINGERING RAIN CHANCES DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL OCCUR. THE REASON IS THAT THE S/WV TODAY WILL HELP
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SERVE TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE TONIGHT-WED NIGHT
PERIOD. ACTUALLY...WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWN AND REMOVE POPS/WX FOR
THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THAT
TREND INTO THE EVENING. FOR WED...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
PRECIP FREE...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ISO/SCT
CONVECTION. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT DRYING OF OUR AIRMASS AND AT
PRESENT...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS TO DRY OUT AS FAR AS RAINFALL IS
CONCERNED.

THIS DOESN`T LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND THE
HUMIDITY LOOK TO RETURN DURING THE WEEKEND AND HANG ON INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK.  A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LEFT BY A DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ABOUT ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...LOOKS TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...GUIDANCE SUGGESTED HIGHS AND
LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S...WHILE LOWS EACH NIGHT GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...FOCUS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIMING THE CONVECTION AND
ANY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT PRECIP. OUTSIDE THAT...VFR
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO EXIST. INITIALLY...WILL TIME IN LOWER CONDITIONS
FOR THE FEW SITES THAT LOOK TO GET IMPACTED BY PRECIP THROUGH
14-15Z. BEYOND THAT...THE PLAN IS TO COVER WITH VCTS FOR THE MAIN
TIME PERIOD STORMS COULD OCCUR. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 07-09Z
ESPECIALLY SINCE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  68  91  68 /  69  21  12   6
MERIDIAN      86  68  91  65 /  67  22  13   7
VICKSBURG     88  68  91  67 /  65  16  11   6
HATTIESBURG   90  72  91  69 /  71  38  39  12
NATCHEZ       86  69  90  69 /  71  28  28  10
GREENVILLE    88  68  91  69 /  34   8   2   5
GREENWOOD     87  67  91  67 /  39  10   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/