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000
FXUS62 KKEY 141446
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1046 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS NEAR
CUBA...RESULTING IN LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY SETTLING IN
ALOFT...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYERED WARMING. A WEAK CAPPING LAYER IS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY ONE OR TWO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
STRONGER CLOUD LINES. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...WITH A HINT OF A REVERSE CLOUD LINE FORMING OVER THE LOWER
KEYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND TURN MORE WESTERLY AS SOUTH FLORIDA HEATS UP. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN AMORPHOUS AND NEAR CUBA. THE SLOW DEEP LAYERED
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL NOT COMPLETELY
PRECLUDE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED...GIVEN THE WEAK CAP...AND
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE BEST TRIGGER FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL BE ALONG A REVERSE ISLAND CLOUD LINE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE. MAY ADJUST POPS INTO A LOW CHANCE FOR THE UPPER KEYS LATER
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST...TO WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE 15TH AT 06Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. SATELLITE AND WEBCAM TRENDS INDICATE A SHREDDED CLOUD
LINE DEVELOPING. NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVECTION OF DRIER UPSTREAM AIR
WILL LIMIT DEEPER CONDESATION AND CONVECTION. THUS...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VCSH IN THE TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1908...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 70 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 14TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 105 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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