Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290218
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1018 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1018 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Windy conditions are ongoing across the Florida Keys and
surrounding coastal waters. Marine observation platforms are
measuring winds of 20 to 25 knots along the Reef, with gusts
nearing 30 knots. A cold front moved through earlier this
afternoon and high pressure has begun to build in behind it,
causing a tightened gradient across the region. While KBYX is not
detecting any meteorological echoes across the forecast area,
well defined sea spray is very visible north of the island chain
thanks to the strong northwest to north winds creating large seas
in the Gulf waters. Tonight`s sounding sampled a very dry
atmospheric profile, boasting a PW of 0.65 inches which is well
below the 10th percentile for this day. Temperatures have been
slowly going down over the course of the past few hours, with a
current reading of 71 degrees at the NWS office in Key West. Dew
points have also plummeted, now ranging from the upper 50s to the
lower 60s.

A surface low off the Carolinas, associated with the cold front
that moved through earlier, will zip northeastward further into
the North Atlantic while the high pressure over the Southeast
treks slightly more eastward. As these two pressure systems move
in their respective directions, the gradient will begin to relax,
allowing winds to gradually decrease overnight while still
remaining elevated. With a drier airmass currently in place, no
shower developme911nt is expected, so have kept rain chances near
nil. The forecast is on track and no changes were necessary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1018 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal
waters. From synopsis, strong northwest to north breezes will
prevail overnight in the wake of a frontal passage. Breezes will
begin to veer to the northeast tomorrow morning and will gradually
decrease through the afternoon while also continuing to veer to
the east. Moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail Sunday
night through at least the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR and gusty conditions will prevail through the TAF period at
both island terminals. Northwest to north winds of 15 to 20 knots
will continue through tomorrow morning, with gusts of 25 to 30
knots possible. Thereafter, winds will become more northerly and
decrease to near 15 knots, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
Crosswinds will be an issue through at least early tomorrow
afternoon until winds become more easterly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1994, the daily record warm low temperature was
recorded in Marathon. This ties as the warmest low reading for the
month of March.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  67  78  68  79 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  67  80  69  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....DR

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