Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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Spot Forecast for WTREX Niobrara Swim Rx Burn...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service North Platte NE
541 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact the NWS North Platte office at 308-532-0921 (or
at 1-800-603-3562) if you have any questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

A warm front will advance east through western Nebraska Monday and
then through north central Nebraska Monday night. The warm front
will be followed by the passage of a Pacific cold front Tuesday
afternoon.

Dry air will move into northern Nebraska tonight and the forecast
is for generally clear skies and dry weather Monday. Afternoon
cumulus clouds are certainly possible, given cold air aloft will
still be in place. Showers possible with the approach and passage
of the cold front Tuesday.

The models are in reasonably good agreement lowering humidity to
around 35 percent Monday and predict light west-northwest winds.
Winds will become light Monday evening followed by a shift to
southeast late Monday evening.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 12 mph.
Eye level winds.....West winds 6 to 7 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56  72  40  27  27  11  8   5   7   10  10  19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............36  35  37  40  45  50  54  58  61  64  65  66
RH..............90  97  92  87  73  61  54  47  42  40  38  36
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  12  12  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  16  16  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   10  10  9
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.3 5.0 5.7 6.1
Transp wind dir.W   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  14  13  15  15  15  17  17  17  15
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
                    7 to 10 mph early in the evening, then shifting
                    to the south 12 to 15 mph overnight.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west around 4 mph early in the evening, then
                    shifting to the southeast up to 6 mph early in
                    the evening shifting to the south 7 to 9 mph
                    overnight.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 13 mph shifting to the southeast 7 to
                    16 mph early in the evening, then shifting to
                    the south 18 to 21 mph overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........19  19  20  30  40  44  48  34  50  49  47  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............67  66  62  56  54  52  51  50  50  49  49  48
RH..............37  37  44  57  64  70  75  70  77  82  83  87
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   8   10  10  12  13  14  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.12  9   9   12  15  15  16  17  20  21  21  21
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  W   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   4   4   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   9
Eye lvl wnd gst.7   5   5   7   9   9   10  10  12  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 4.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.13  9   7   13  14  16  18  20  21  21  21  21
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny. Chance of
                    showers in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 14 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 17 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 9 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 22 to 26 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........52  58  65  71  78  75  72  69  52  36  19  14
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............47  48  51  55  58  60  60  61  61  62  62  62
RH..............85  87  81  73  64  58  55  50  47  43  41  38
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..15  14  14  14  14  15  17  18  20  20  18  17
20 FT wind gust.21  20  20  20  20  21  24  25  28  28  25  24
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.9   8   8   8   8   9   10  11  12  12  11  10
Eye lvl wnd gst.13  12  12  12  12  13  14  15  17  17  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  20  20  22  23  25  26  26  25  25
Haines index....6   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Cole
Requested by...Elliot Nauert
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412647.0/LBF
.DELDT 04/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL elliot.nauert@gmail.com