354
FXUS64 KLCH 300222
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
922 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Calm or very light winds being observed across the region this
evening. Mostly clear skies and saturated soils from early
morning rains will favor fog development overnight. Some areas
are already showing visibilities around 5 miles. Fog is expected
to dissipate by 14Z giving way to gradually clearing skies. As
was mentioned previously, a stray shower can`t be completely ruled
out Tuesday afternoon as higher low and mid level moisture
advects back into the region, but probabilities remain very low.
The only changes to the inherited forecast this evening were minor
massages to dewpoints and fog coverage.

Jones

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Convection is gradually exiting the area to the east with light to
moderate rain lingering south and east of New Iberia and over the
gulf waters. Some spotty flooding is also continuing across
interior SE TX and West LA from previous rain.

The upper disturbance responsible for this morning;s convection
will continue east and away. This will give the region a period of
quiet weather with light winds that is expected to last through
tonight. Low lvl moisture from today`s rain may combine with the
light winds and clear skies to allow fog to develop around sunrise

Tomorrow the flow will again turn SE with surface moisture being
pulled back north. While not mentioned in the forecast, an
isolated shower may be possible by afternoon in SE TX and western
LA as the moisture gets pulled back toward the plains.

Showers and storms may be possible locally again by Wednesday.
Another system will move into the plains and gradually move
closer for the extended portion of the forecast. Ahead of this
disturbance, ample moisture will be in place and with afternoon
heating, scattered convection will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The beginning of the long term will be active as a weak frontal
boundary is pushed into the plains before stalling out along the
northern fringe of the CWA. Thanks to the rainfall received today
(Monday), flooding will be possible with additional rainfall amounts
expected on Thursday and Friday. As a result, WPC has place us in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

As this will be May, the front is not going (nor expected) to bring
down significantly cooler or drier air. Temperatures will be held to
the low 80s thanks to cloud cover and rain Thursday and Friday while
daytime temps will rise into the mid to upper 80s for the rest of
the period. Overnight temps will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s
with near matching dewpoints.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions with mostly light winds noted across the region
(feels like its been a while since we could say that). SC/CU will
continue to diminish this evening, while cirrus associated with
the exiting storm system will shift east. The overnight combination
of clear skies, light or near calm winds and extremely moist
ground will set the stage for areas of fog and possibly some low
clouds to develop. MVFR vsby reductions expected to develop by
06-08Z, with occasional LIFR vsbys/cigs possible late tonight,
mainly at the LA terminals. Vsbys should improve to VFR by 15Z
with cigs lifting/scattering by 17Z. VFR/light southerly winds to
prevail thereafter.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Winds continue to decrease with storms exiting the area. The light
and VRB flow will turn back southeast then increase into the 10 to
20kt range by Wednesday. An SCA may be needed by Thursday as the
pressure gradient tightens slightly more with winds in the gulf
waters increasing above 20kts briefly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  85  62  85 /   0   0   0  30
LCH  66  85  68  83 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  67  87  70  87 /  10  10   0  30
BPT  67  85  70  84 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...24