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000
FXUS64 KLIX 221721 AAC
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1221 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure continues to move into the region from the north and
west. Pressure gradient is starting to relax across both land and
marine based zones. The only concern would be potential fire
weather issues with RH values dropping this afternoon into the 20
percent range. That said, lackluster winds should keep us from
reaching critical fire weather thresholds this afternoon. (Frye)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Strong dry air surge at the mid and upper levels is moving into the
area. This is occurring at the sfc as well but is most impressive in
the upper levels as seen in IR Satellite imagery. This dry surge
will move through and out of the area by Wed. At the sfc, we will
begin to see return flow from the gulf Tue. This will help bring sfc
moisture back, but there won`t be enough to depth to it to produce
more than fair wx cu.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Gulf flow continues through the remainder of this package. A cold
front will move rapidly east and quickly stall Fri over central TX.
The sh/ts that will be produced by this front will continue moving
eastward but will also weaken with time as there will be no support
or forcing. By the time this line would have made it to our area,
there won`t be much more than a chance of cloud cover and fog, and
that may not be dense. That`s the only real item in site for now.
There could be some renewed forcing to this old boundary over TX
that kicks a front farther east but still talling to the NW of here.
But could be close enough to give some chance of rainfall by the
start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions anticipated through the cycle. Winds will become
light and variable with time as high pressure moves into the
region. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Northerly winds of 20-25kt will begin to ease this morning and
should do at such a rapid pace by mid morning to see the SCA drop.
We are hesitant to bring a caution statment up since these winds
fall off so quick. The stability along with the sfc high moving over
and it being daytime over the water, which leads to stability with
respect to the diurnal rythm, will be responsible for this rapid
lowering of wind speeds. Return flow will start Tue and rise to
around 10-15kt then continue that through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  76  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  80  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  48  79  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  79  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  51  76  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  47  78  55  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...TE