Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
817 FXUS65 KLKN 050602 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1102 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Strong spring weather system brings widespread winter like conditions to the forecast area tonight and tomorrow morning. Post frontal instability showers and weak thunderstorms expected Sunday afternoon with activity mostly dissipating Sunday night. Conditions remain cool with unsettled weather over northern Nevada into mid week. Mostly dry with fairer weather the latter half of the week. && .UPDATE...Winds have fallen below high wind warning thresholds, therefore the warning is allowed to expire. However, gusty winds will continue into the night at higher elevations along with widespread rain and snow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM PDT Sat May 4 2024/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night Robust upper low and strong attendant cold front continue to move thru the forecast area tonight with the low anticipated to be directly overhead mid day Sunday. Exceptionally strong southwesterly winds ease overnight in conjunction with the frontal passage with winds becoming westerly post frontal. Winds ease as noted but will remain at least breezy tonight with gusts 20 to 25 mph. West/northwesterly gusts 25 to 30 mph expected Sunday afternoon with winds trending lighter Sunday night. Snow levels expected to quickly lower tonight as a cold post frontal air mass continues to move into Nevada. Widespread rain transitions to snow tonight and based on the timing of the frontal progression and main push of precipitation along the front, White Pine County will be the primary focus of accumulating snow late tonight and Sunday morning with impacts also expected throughout the Ruby Mtns/E Humboldt range as well as northern Elko County. Winter weather advisories have been issued for these locations, 6500 feet and higher. Much lower probability for winter weather impacts elsewhere. Pass routes across the eastern half of the forecast area likely see slush ups and light accumulations which will be primarily snowfall rate driven, and produce adverse travel conditions late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Most valley snow totals Saturday night and Sunday morning will be around an inch or less. The greatest accumulations of 2-5 inches of snowfall will be situated over the pass routes across the eastern half of the forecast area. High mountain snow totals look to be around 10 inches or more. Front will be mostly exited to the east by Sunday afternoon, however weather will remain active with instability showers persisting across the forecast area. Light valley rain/snow mix is generally expected with light snow showers elsewhere. Additional snow accumulations will be little to none for the valleys. Ample instability looks to also produce isolated weak thunderstorms with graupel, occasional lightning, and localized erratic wind gusts present under any thunderstorm activity. Showers and thunderstorms dissipate thru the evening and Sunday night with mostly dry conditions present by sunrise Monday. That said, snow showers likely linger across northern ELko County and the Jarbidge Wilderness and Independence range are forecast to pick up an additional 1 to 4 inches of snow Sunday evening and Sunday night. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Daytime highs Sunday will be cool, residing in the upper 30s to upper 40s with overnight lows again in the low 20s to low 30s. LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday Lingering showers and breezy winds will continue Monday as a low pressure system progresses eastward. On the heels of the exiting low, an upper level wave moves through northern NV Monday afternoon, bringing scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms mainly north of 1-80. Winds will increase out of the west to 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. Light snow showers are possible in the higher valleys, with 1-3 inches of snow in the high mountain areas of Northern Elko County and the Ruby Mountains. Some lingering showers and breezy conditions will persist for much of the day Tuesday as a broad long-wave trough encompasses most of the west. A 15-20% chance isolated thunderstorms is possible across northern Elko county in the afternoon. Quiet conditions expected as dry, northwest flow influences the region mid to late next week. Highs early next week will start out in the 50s and 60s before climbing into the 70s by late next week. Lows will range from the 20s and 30s. Winds will be breezy to locally windy each afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the windier locales. AVIATION...A storm system from the northwest will impact northern and central NV through Sunday. Elevated winds from the S-SW expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts as high as 30-40 knots at northern terminal sites. Gusts will reach to 40-50 knots at KELY and KTPH, with BLDU possible given the strong winds. Blowing dust may also reduce VIS to MVFR during the afternoon and evening. Winds decrease though gusts of 20-25kt are possible through the evening. Rain showers will move from west to east and reach at northern terminal sites today with CIGs lowering to MVFR conditions at times. Rain expected to transition to snow tonight with CIGs and VIS lowering to MVFR/IFR. Snow showers will then reach KELY and KTPH late tonight and Sunday morning with CIGs and VIS lowering to MVFR/IFR. KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication issue. HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal snow melt. A strong low pressure system continues to bring widespread rain and mountain snow to northern and central Nevada this afternoon, tonight, and tomorrow. Liquid equivalent precipitation amounts of 0.20up to 1.25 are expected across Nevada, exacerbating flood concerns. This will increase flows on many streams and rivers over the next several days. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and is forecast remain in action stage while gradually decreasing for the next several days. The Humboldt River at Comus resides in minor flood stage and is forecast to remain in minor flood stage for the next few days while gradually decreasing. The river is forecast to fall into action stage mid week. Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. The Owyhee River near Mountain City resides near action stage. The river is forecast to continue to range around action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until noon PDT Sunday ABOVE 6500 FEET in Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range... White Pine County. Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday South Central Elko County... Southeastern Elko County. High Wind Warning until 2 AM PDT Sunday Northeastern Nye County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...White Pine County. && $$ 93/93