Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 242316
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Winds have already begun to ramp up this afternoon as the upper
trough over the Great Basin brings in a strong 80 knot 500mb jet
across West Texas. In addition, 50 knot 700mb winds are present
aloft with soundings indicating deep mixing up to 500mb. Thus,
strong winds are expected to continue this afternoon with gusts up
to 70 mph likely, especially along the Caprock. Areas of dust can
already be seen on satellite imagery with reduced visibility
occurring at times. Hazardous driving conditions are highly likely
with the ongoing strong southwesterly winds and reduced visibility.
Current observations also show the dryline to be along a line from
Vigo Park southward through Plainview to Lubbock to Brownfield this
afternoon. Given the placement of the dryline farther west than
models were predicting, the chance for showers and storms will
increase across the Rolling Plains. Cumulus clouds are beginning to
develop along the dryline with upper 40s to lower 50 dewpoints east
of the boundary. Any storm that develops this afternoon will likely
remain below severe limits in terms of hail with limited instability
present. Given the high winds already present with the upper level
system, severe wind gusts and dry downbursts cannot be ruled out.

Winds are expected to remain breezy tonight with a 30 to 40 knot low
level jet remaining in place as the lee low slides eastward into the
Central Plains. A cold front will dive southward through the
forecast area tomorrow morning with continued breezy northwest winds
following the front. Increased moisture behind the boundary will
bring low clouds and a chance for precipitation across the far
southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest portions of the South
Plains. Cold Canadian air will bring near freezing temperatures
tomorrow morning across the aforementioned areas and therefore a
chance for light snow showers. Very little to no accumulations with
elevated or grassy surfaces potentially seeing a light dusting of
snow, but no hazardous road conditions are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Winds will become light after midnight tomorrow night as colder air
settles over the region. Most areas on the Caprock will see lows
Tuesday morning drop to around freezing while our northwestern zones
see temps drop into the mid/upper 20s. Lows off the Caprock will
drop to the mid 30s to around freezing. Cloud cover will help
prevent a widespread hard freeze across much of the FA. Skies will
temporarily clear by Tuesday afternoon as the upper upper shortwave
trough bringing today`s strong winds pushes off to the northeast. An
upper low over south-central Canada, however, will keep troughing as
the dominate pattern over the region through late Wednesday
afternoon. Winds are progged to become more easterly late Tuesday
evening ahead of an embedded shortwave. Models also continue to hint
at the possibility of light stratiform rainfall due in part to
isentropic upglide mainly Tuesday night into late Wednesday
morning. Skies will begin to clear from west to east Wednesday
afternoon as the upper trough begins pushing to our east and upper
flow becomes northwesterly. Upper ridging will set up overhead
Wednesday night and dominate the pattern through the weekend. Other
than breezy south to southwesterly winds each afternoon, conditions
will be quiet through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

High winds will begin to subside at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW near and
after sunset; however, winds will remain blustery throughout the
nighttime hours for all terminals. VSBYs at KLBB will improve over
the next few hours, returning to VFR near 25/06Z. Improvements in
VSBY may occur faster than what is indicated in the current TAF.
Winds will shift to the northwest tomorrow morning following the
passage of a cold front, and CIGs should remain VFR at KPVW and
KLBB as snow showers remain displaced well to the northwest of the
terminals. Winds will finally diminish entirely by the end of the
TAF period, with winds less than 10 kt expected shortly beyond the
scope of this cycle.

Sincavage

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

|Mostly wind driven elevated to critical fire weather conditions
remain this afternoon with strong southwesterly winds of 40 to 50
mph and gusts up to 70 mph possible. The dryline is slowly pushing
eastward this afternoon with dry conditions filling in behind the
boundary. Relative humidity values range from the mid teens to the
lower 20s. Fire starts due to lightning cannot be ruled out. A Red
Flag Warning remains in effect until 10 PM CDT for the South Plains
and most of the far southern Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>025-
027>030-033>036-039>042.

High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>037-
039>042.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...09


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