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000
FXUS64 KLUB 150555
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1255 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The approach of a stout upper level storm system will bring dry,
warm, and breezy conditions on the caprock during the daytime with a
classic dryline pattern across West Texas. Convection looks to be
delayed until after 00Z with a number of issues with the convective
potential for Monday. A strong closed low will be moving over Vegas
tonight and then across the Intermountain West on Monday morning.
Southwest flow aloft will increase on Monday out ahead of this
system which will begin to bring strong lift over the area late in
the afternoon. A strong surface response will be generated in
advance of this system which will be the main focus of this short
term forecast. Models depict very strong surface cyclogenesis in
northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska on Monday. A dryline
extending to the south from this low will mix eastward during the
day with some model differences in how far east this dryline will
mix. With a surface low position around northeastern Colorado, we
would not expect a dryline location like what the GFS is depicting
east of the Rolling Plains. The gamut of other model guidance
generally shows the dryline mixing to the edge of the caprock or
slightly farther east off the caprock edge. This solution is more
reasonable given the forecast position of the surface low.
Complicating the mixing of the dryline will be extensive mid and
high level cloud cover throughout most of the daytime. The cloud
cover will act to limit mixing and may keep temperatures cooler than
forecast. On the other side of the FA, winds may be slow to come up
given the abundant cloud cover limiting mixing during the morning
hours. Cloud cover will be moving eastward during the afternoon.
Once clouds do clear, surface winds will likely be quick to
increase. A strong elevated mixed layer and lack of deep mixing off
the caprock may hold off convective initiation until after 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Timing and overall coverage of thunderstorms Monday evening is still
uncertain with concerns that a fairly strong capping inversion could
delay storm development until late Monday night or prevent it within
our forecast area altogether. Hi-res guidance generally places
the dryline over the Rolling Plains and far SE TX Panhandle by
Monday evening, which is a bit further east than earlier progs.
East of the dryline dewpoints in the lower 60s combined with
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support MUCAPEs in
excess of 2000 J/kg through the late evening hours with effective
deep-layer shear magnitudes also progged to exceed 50 kt. However,
the strength and depth of a stout capping inversion below the EML
casts doubt on the likelihood of widespread convective development
along the dryline. Furthermore, the timing and positioning of PVA
associated with the approach of the upper low still looks to be
sub-optimal with forcing for ascent appearing relatively minimal
until later overnight at which point a Pacific front will push low
level moisture well to our east. All this to say, the threat for
severe thunderstorms over the Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle
Monday evening into Monday night is highly conditional and will
depend on the exact positioning of the dryline, strength of the
dryline circulation during the evening hours, and magnitude of
CIN. However, should thunderstorms develop within this conditional
environment they will likely quickly become severe with large
hail and damaging wind gusts the primary expected hazards.

The aforementioned Pacific front will usher in a dry airmass over
the entire forecast area early Tuesday with breezy to potentially
low-end windy conditions set to continue through most of the daytime
hours on Tuesday. Flow aloft will remain zonal through much of the
rest of the week which will keep temperatures largely above normal
across the region through Wed-Thu with dry conditions continuing.
Guidance diverges by late week, but consensus still points to a cold
front passing through the region sometime in the Thu-Fri period,
which combined with potentially more unsettled southwest flow aloft
and moist isentropic ascent could bring rainfall back to portions of
the region next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An upper level low will move out of the Great Basin to the
Colorado Rockies today with surface cyclogenesis on the central
High Plains leading to breezy to windy conditions across the
forecast area, generally from the south ahead of a dryline and
southwest to west behind the dryline this afternoon. Questions
still abound regarding TS potential at KCDS late day into evening.
Confidence remains low at this time and will keep mention out of
the TAF for now. Finally, despite low level warm, moist advection
signs point to stratus being fairly limited in coverage later
tonight toward sunrise or a bit after. The best chance for MVFR
ceilings likely to be at KCDS, but even then confidence not high
enough to add mention at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns will return on Monday
afternoon, particularly for the southwestern South Plains. A strong
upper level storm system approaching the area will force a dryline
roughly to the edge of the caprock by late afternoon. Conditions on
the caprock will be dry, warm, and breezy. Winds may not ramp up
until early afternoon due to expected cloud cover. Winds at the 20
foot level are expected to peak around 25-30 mph at the 20 foot
level near the Texas/New Mexico state line. Very warm temperatures
in the 80s along with very dry air will allow relative humidity
values to drop into the single digits. Critical fire weather
conditions may be limited to the southwestern South Plains which did
not receive much rain from the last event. ERC values will be higher
in these locations compared to the rest of the region which received
more rainfall. Elevated fire weather conditions are also possible
over most of the region on Tuesday as strong west winds continue
through most of the day.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07