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000
FXUS64 KLUB 151818
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
118 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today`s severe weather threat will be highly conditional on a number
of factors. There may be a brief period of thunderstorms in the
Rolling Plains for a few hours around 21-01Z this afternoon. Strong
surface cyclogenesis was ongoing in northeastern Colorado in
response to a strong closed low moving across the central Rockies.
The timing of the large scale lift from this system will not be
optimal with peak lift not arriving until after 00Z. The bulk of
lift from upper level wind divergence will be located well north of
the area. However, strong low level convergence will exist on the
dryline in the Rolling Plains. Whether this low level lift combined
with late arriving large scale lift will be enough to overcome other
factors is highly uncertain.

Models have come in better agreement with the position of the
dryline by late this afternoon mixing it to around the edge of the
caprock. This seems reasonable given the position of the surface low
in northeastern Colorado. The high level cloud cover is preventing
deep boundary layer mixing in the area of interest and keeping
temperatures cooler than expected. These clouds will continue to
clear out through the rest of the afternoon which will result in
quick mixing where the clearing occurs. The question is whether the
clearing will be rapid enough to produce enough heating to obtain
convective initiation. Models are in good agreement showing a
substantial elevated mixed layer above the shallow low level
moisture. Convective initiation may still be difficult to reach even
if the cap mostly erodes due to the later arrival of large scale
lift. Otherwise, very steep lapse rates within the EML will produce
instability values up to 3000 J/kg or so. A strong axis of low level
theta-e air will exist just east of the dryline location across the
Rolling Plains. Good low level turning of winds and mostly straight
line hodographs above the low levels will favor supercell
development with large hail the primary threat. The cooler
temperatures and lack of deep mixing will keep LCLs relatively low
in the Rolling Plains. Strong low level helicity values warrants a
weak tornado threat with any storm that develops. Any storms that do
develop will quickly exit the FA by around 00-01Z.

A pacific cold front will then sweep through the area this evening
shifting winds to the west and spreading the dry surface air into
the Rolling Plains. A strong surface pressure gradient will remain
overnight into Tuesday keeping winds strong through the night and
morning hours. Strong low level winds maximums will be moving off
east of the area on Tuesday afternoon resulting in decreasing winds
through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Synoptic-scale flow is forecast to de-amplify by Wednesday as the
negatively-tilted trough attenuates and the vertically-stacked lows
begin to dissipate over the Great Lakes region, and will become
absorbed within the eastern periphery of a more-expansive cyclone
rotating over south-central Canada. Stabilizing geopotential height
tendencies will follow over the CWA while a shallow, low-amplitude
trough pivots over the Sea of Cortez on Wednesday. The continued
presence of the cross-barrier flow in the mid-levels will maintain
lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico on
Wednesday, with a quasi-stationary front losing its baroclinity and
transitioning into a broadened surface trough. High temperatures
were raised a few degrees on the Caprock as the combination of the
southwesterly winds, full insolation, and near-superadiabatic
surface-to-3-km lapse rates cause temperatures to warm into the
upper 80s on the Caprock while remaining in the lower 80s in the
Rolling Plains. A well-defined cirrus shield originating out of the
far northeastern Pacific Ocean is also forecast to eclipse the
southern portions of the CWA on Wednesday as the low-amplitude
trough progresses eastward. There are some indications that a small,
barotropic low may form within the shallow waveguide of this trough;
however, formation of such a feature is not expected to impede the
eastward movement of this trough and the northern edge of the cirrus
shield should shift eastward by early Thursday morning.

The progression of the large-scale system over south-central Canada
will be slow owing to the formation of an Omega Block branching out
of the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Series of perturbations
propagating through the belt of more-amplified flow to the north is
expected to send a cold front southward across the Great Plains and
into the CWA by Thursday morning. The cold front will be moving into
an increasingly barotropic airmass, though pressure tendencies will
facilitate at least breezy, northeasterly winds post-FROPA before
the front becomes quasi-stationary to the south of the CWA. Much
cooler temperatures are forecast by Friday and into this weekend as
the CWA remains north of the quasi-stationary front as CAA persists
as cloud clover increases ahead of another low-amplitude trough
approaching from the west. Moist, upslope, low-level flow beneath
the right entrance-region to a high-level jet streak should
facilitate the development of showers and thunderstorms area-wide,
especially on Saturday given the position of the quasi-stationary
front. Details involving timing, and any potential for thunderstorm
intensity, remains nebulous. However, confidence in measurable PoPs
is high enough to maintain the likely (>=60 percent) PoP delineation
across most of the CWA on Saturday. Precipitation chances will wane
by the latter part of the weekend and into early next week following
the collapse of the Omega Block to the north, with dry and warm
conditions returning by the end of the period.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Thick cloud cover has prevented surface winds from increasing so
far this morning into early afternoon. However, these clouds are
expected to clear from west to east through the mid-afternoon.
Once clouds do clear, winds will quickly increase at the surface
out of the southwest. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain
well east of KLBB and KPVW and likely to the south of KCDS. A cold
front will move through this evening shifting winds to the west
and remaining breezy.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Critical fire weather conditions will continue across the western
South Plains and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle for the next
several hours. Winds will quickly increase and dew points will
rapidly drop when cloud cover clears the area. Elevated fire weather
conditions will continue elsewhere on the caprock with clouds
clearing out later in the afternoon. A cold front will move through
the area late this evening shifting winds to the west but remaining
breezy. Winds will quickly increase again after sunrise on Tuesday
morning but will be decreasing through the afternoon hours. Dry air
will remain in place across the entire region overnight into
Tuesday. Therefore, there may be a brief period of elevated fire
weather conditions around mid-day Tuesday where strong winds will
overlap decreasing relative humidity values.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027-
028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01