354
FXUS64 KLZK 280522
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Latest KLZK radar data indicate scattered, many light convective
cells across northern sections of the forecast area, moving
northeast. Temperatures were running 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for late April.

Expect active weather conditions to prevail through at least the
first half of this forecast period.

Convection is expected to continue to expand in coverage across
southern Kansas through western North Texas during the late afternoon
hours. Upscale convective development is expected as this
activity moves eastward. This activity will approach western
sections of the forecast area late tonight. Some decrease in
overall intensity of this convection is expected as it reaches the
forecast area. The amount and timing of the decrease will have an
affect of the amount of stabilization that occurs Sunday morning
due to convective overturning.

Upper level energy will continue to approach the mid south on
Sunday.  Another round of convection is expected during the
afternoon and evening.  Again, the timing of the development will
depend on the overturning that occurs with the first round of
storms.

Precipitation coverage is expected to decrease from west to east
on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Unsettled weather remains likely through the long term portion of
the forecast. A series of H500 troughs will periodically dip south
into the western/northern US beneath a broad cyclone slowly moving
east along the US/CA border. With mid-level ridging in place across
the Gulf Coast/Southeast, persistent SW flow will remain over much
of the central/southern US.

At the sfc, a warm/moist airmass will extend north toward the
Central Plains/Great Lakes region with a stalled frontal boundary in
the vicinity. Daily highs and lows through the period are expected
to remain above normal as S-SW flow persists between ridging to the
SE and sfc cyclone to the NW. Other than temperatures, sfc winds
will remain elevated at times as well due to the enhanced pressure
gradient.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast nearly
every day, with diurnal heating expected to be a contributing factor
in development. But also, timing of individual shortwaves traversing
the flow aloft will influence periods of increased POPs. Large scale
signals for severe weather remain low, but there could be some
potential later next week as a more pronounced trough moves toward
the middle of the country and a cold front approaches from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

All sites will begin the forecast period in VFR flight category.
Expect surface wind gusts at all sites in excess of 25 knots through
the entire day on Sunday. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will impact the terminals of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KHOT,
KADF, and KPBF beginning Sunday morning and lasting throughout the
day. CIGS and VSBY during this period will drop to as low as MVFR
for CIGS and IFR for VSBY, especially within stronger thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  63  75  58 /  70 100  70  10
Camden AR         82  63  78  61 /  50 100  70  10
Harrison AR       73  58  77  54 /  80  80  20  10
Hot Springs AR    79  62  80  60 /  70 100  50  10
Little Rock   AR  82  65  78  62 /  60 100  70  10
Monticello AR     84  66  75  62 /  30  70  90  20
Mount Ida AR      78  60  81  58 /  80  90  30  10
Mountain Home AR  75  59  78  55 /  70  90  30  10
Newport AR        81  64  74  60 /  50  90  80  20
Pine Bluff AR     82  64  75  62 /  40  90  90  20
Russellville AR   78  61  80  59 /  70  90  30  10
Searcy AR         79  63  75  59 /  60 100  80  10
Stuttgart AR      81  66  74  62 /  40  90  90  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday morning
for ARZ004-005-014-024-031-032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063-
066>068-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...74