Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 181022 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
522 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
H500 cyclone making slow progress east along the US/CA border
will contribute to enhanced W/SW flow across the middle of the
country the next few days. A couple separate waves will move from
the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes and from TX toward the
Gulf Coast.
At the sfc, an area of low pressure and an associated cold front
extending from the KS/OK border southwestward this morning will
shift eastward throughout the day. The cold front will begin to
progress across the state from NW to SE by late afternoon/early
evening. S-SW winds are expected to increase across the state
today, gusts could approach 25 mph at times.
Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by Td
values in the 60s/70s F will extend northward into southern
Missouri and the Ohio Valley. Additionally, temperatures are
expected to soar into the 70s/80s F across the region with some
spots across the state seeing upper 80s F.
With the well above normal temperatures in place, instability
will increase this afternoon. As the front begins to move across
the state, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along it and push southeast through the
evening hours. Initial activity will have a better opportunity to
become severe. Some uncertainty remains regarding how far
southeast the severe threat will persist as well as storm coverage
through the late evening hours.
Regardless, overall severe weather threat is expected to diminish
by later in the evening as the front makes quick progress
southeastward and instability wanes. Could see a few storms
produce large hail and some damaging wind gusts, generally before
midnight across west/north Arkansas.
Much cooler temperatures are expected across the state on Friday
in the wake of the cold front. Sky conditions will generally
remain cloudy and some light rain will remain possible, especially
by Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
To begin the period, zonal flow aloft will keep an unsettled weather
pattern across the state to begin the long term period. A stalled
frontal boundary to the south of the state will bring the chance for
rain and storms through the weekend as a trough dives down from the
Central Plains by late Saturday. By Monday...high pressure begins to
move back into the state...bringing back those calm and dry
conditions.
While there is still some model disagreement regarding exact timing
and intensity of this system...severe weather looks to be on the low
end at this time. With that said, a few strong storms cannot be
ruled out.
Temperatures are expected to be coolest to begin the period before
warming early into next week. High temperatures over the weekend are
expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s with overnight lows in
the upper 30s to upper 40s. By early next week, highs will begin to
warm into the lower 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the
lower 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Widespread stratus has impacted most terminals this morning with
MVFR and lower cigs with some occasional vsby restriction as well.
Generally MVFR/VFR conditions will be seen by 15z across the
state. S-SW winds will be aoa 10 kts at most terminals with higher
gusts. Behind the cold front, expected to move NW-SE across the
state this evening and tonight, winds will turn out of the N-NW,
remaining gusty. Some showers/storms may move across SE Arkansas
closer to 18z with isolated to scattered storms expected to move
ahead of the front closer to 19/00z. These storms will originate
across N/W AR and move southeast with time, less confident in
overall coverage.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 54 69 50 / 40 70 10 50
Camden AR 83 60 68 53 / 40 60 20 40
Harrison AR 86 47 66 47 / 60 40 10 40
Hot Springs AR 84 56 67 49 / 30 70 20 60
Little Rock AR 86 59 68 53 / 40 70 20 50
Monticello AR 84 62 70 56 / 50 60 20 30
Mount Ida AR 84 54 67 49 / 40 80 30 70
Mountain Home AR 87 48 68 48 / 60 50 10 40
Newport AR 86 55 69 51 / 40 70 10 40
Pine Bluff AR 85 59 67 53 / 40 70 20 40
Russellville AR 86 54 70 51 / 50 50 10 50
Searcy AR 85 55 68 50 / 30 70 10 40
Stuttgart AR 84 58 67 53 / 40 70 20 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...67