940
FXUS64 KLZK 021720
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Mid and high clouds were noted increasing in coverage across AR
ahead of an upper level disturbance evident via infrared
satellite imagery. Predawn temperatures were in the mid 60s to
lower 70s with light and variable winds.

Today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will build into the state
from the W and SW ahead of an upper level impulse traversing
background SWrly flow. Precip is expected to ramp up substantially
across SW AR this morning, spreading into Cntrl sections of the
state around mid-day, to mid/late afternoon for portions of NE AR.
PoP chances will linger into Thursday night with a lull in activity
possible across portions of Wrn AR.

On Friday, another upper level disturbance will move across the
region bringing another round of precipitation, mainly through the
first half of the day. This upper level disturbance appears slightly
weaker and further S than the one moving across the state today,
thus may not bring as much widespread rainfall to AR. Greatest PoP
chances should be over Srn AR (closer proximity to aforementioned
upper feature). Another lull in rainfall is possible Friday
night. An active upper pattern will remain entrenched across the
region heading into the long term.

The threat for severe weather appears low at this time for Thursday
and Friday, however rainfall amounts are anticipated to vary by
quite a bit depending on said location within the state. Over Nrn
AR, amounts of 0.10 to 0.50 are possible. Further S, over Cntrl AR,
amounts may range from 0.50 to 1.00. And lastly but not least, Srn
sections of the state could see rainfall amounts between 1 and 2
inches. High temperatures both days will be in the mid 70s to mid
80s with lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The extended period will start off unsettled, with a cold front
drifting into Arkansas from the north and stalling. Surrounding the
front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are in the
forecast through the weekend. Any severe weather should be spotty,
and there could be localized flash flooding.

Heading into next week, a large storm system will head from the
Rockies into the northern Plains. Ahead of the system, the
aforementioned front will exit back to the north. At the same time,
the system will try to drag a new front into the region, but it will
likely come to a halt north of the state. This will happen as the
front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft.

Given the scenario, warmer conditions are expected Monday through
Wednesday, and precipitation will become more isolated. Rain chances
are highest in northern Arkansas closest to the front. Temperatures
will be well above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Precipitation forecasts will reflect expected continued decaying
of current precipitation shield, as indicated by KLZK radar. MVFR
conditions are expected to prevail during this forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  63  79  63 /  70  90  50  20
Camden AR         77  65  79  64 /  90  70  70  20
Harrison AR       80  59  76  60 /  80  60  30  10
Hot Springs AR    77  63  80  64 /  90  70  60  20
Little Rock   AR  81  66  81  66 /  80  80  60  30
Monticello AR     80  68  79  66 /  90  80  80  30
Mount Ida AR      76  62  81  63 /  90  60  50  20
Mountain Home AR  82  60  78  61 /  80  70  30  10
Newport AR        85  65  79  63 /  60  90  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     81  66  79  65 /  90  80  70  30
Russellville AR   80  62  81  63 /  80  60  30  20
Searcy AR         82  63  79  62 /  70  80  50  30
Stuttgart AR      82  67  79  65 /  60  80  70  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...55