909
ACUS11 KWNS 092139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092139
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-092315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Areas affected...northeastern Mississippi into a large portion of
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 092139Z - 092315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is ongoing across northern Alabama,
and will likely expand over the next 1 to 2 hours.  New WW will
likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a developing
convective tower near Birmingham, near the intersection of a weak
west-to-east baroclinic zone, and an outflow boundary from prior
convection that extends southward/south-southeastward into
southeastern Alabama.  While large-scale ascent appears to be weak,
an otherwise volatile environment is in place, with mixed-layer CAPE
averaging 3000 to 4000 J/kg on the warm side of these boundaries,
and strong mid-level westerly flow (in excess of 60 kt at mid
levels).  Should additional convection evolve -- as appears likely
per the character of the cu field -- substantial severe-weather risk
would accompany the storms.  This would include potential for
strong/damaging winds and very large hail.  Some tornado risk could
also evolve locally, given the presence of the aforementioned
boundaries, though low-level flow/shear appears limited at this
time.

..Goss/Hart.. 05/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33578965 34068948 34108732 33468603 31848469 31578538
            32008709 32768819 32928935 33578965