783
FXUS64 KMEG 092052
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
352 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cool and dry conditions are expected through the weekend, barring
a few scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight in
portions of north Mississippi. Showers and thunderstorms return
early next week as two slow moving cold fronts approach the area
back-to-back.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Current GOES satellite depicts a cirrus shield blowing off from
ongoing convection over the ArkLaTex, but conditions are
generally clear across the Mid-South. Near-normal pleasant
temperatures and sunny skies are expected for the next several
days as high pressure and a cooler airmass build in behind
this morning`s front.

Despite most of the area looking high and dry, there may be a few
strong to severe thunderstorms that clip the far southern extent
of our CWA late tonight as the aforementioned convection continues
along a shortwave across central Mississippi. However, CAMs
indicate an extremely low coverage of storms and thus confidence
in this is quite low. Forecast soundings for the area in the
Marginal to Slight Risks (levels 1 and 2 out of 5, respectively)
do indicate fairly steep lapse rates that may produce some small
hail this afternoon, but it is likely to be a very well capped
environment. Storms may struggle to actually tap into what limited
instability there is.

Next week, the first of two frontal systems looks to approach from
the ArkLaTex as early as Monday morning. A warm front will lift
north and give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the day, transitioning to a more widespread coverage as
the cold front pushes through late Monday night. After a very
brief break midweek, yet another front looks to sink down from the
northern Plains. Early indications of severe weather potential
look quite low for both systems, but we could see a grand total of
about 1-2 inches of rain over the next 7 days from these two
systems combined.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

North winds will persist through the period along with VFR conds.
Low chance of SHRAs or TSRAs near TUP late tonight, so left out
for now. MVFR CIGs may try to build into MKL towards the end of
the period, but confidence is low.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3