822
FXUS64 KMEG 071751 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1251 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

An increasingly active weather pattern is expected for the Mid-
South. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
will continue to increase in coverage and intensity on Wednesday.
While strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and
Wednesday, there is a greater risk for severe weather development
on Wednesday night. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Thursday with a dry and cooler weekend expected for
the Mid-South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this
morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Currently, a large area of thunderstorms extend from northeast
Missouri southward into northwest Arkansas.

This area of thunderstorms will continue to move east this morning
and eventually move into mainly the northern half of the region.
While this activity is expected to weaken some as it reaches the
Mid-South, there could be some strong thunderstorms over extreme
northern sections of the region. Temperatures will remain a few
degrees above normal today with highs in the mid 80s. As a weak
cold front moves into the region tonight, another round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible with the chance of severe
weather remaining low. Temperatures will remain quite warm tonight
with lows Wednesday morning in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

On Wednesday, the frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm
front. Some scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the
day. A stronger cold front will move into western Arkansas in the
afternoon with thunderstorms increasing in coverage over the
northern half of the region. Another warm day is expected on
Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. As this cold front
moves into the region by late Wednesday evening, thunderstorms
will increase in coverage and intensity across the entire Mid-
South. Wednesday night appears to be the most likely time for
severe weather with damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail
possible. As this cold front moves through the region on
Thursday, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead
of the front. The cold front should be southeast of the region by
Thursday night with the threat of thunderstorms gradually ending.

High pressure builds into the region on Friday bringing dry
weather and below normal temperatures. A secondary cold front will
move through the region over the weekend with a few thunderstorms
possible over portions of northwest Tennessee for Saturday
afternoon. Dry and cooler weather returns for Saturday night
through Monday as high pressure moves back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

TSRA initiation potential, timing and coverage remain the primary
challenge in our modified tropical maritime airmass. HRRR remains
the outlier in initiating TSRA from near NQA to MKL and points
northward around 03Z this evening. NAM 3km depicts more limited
TSRA coverage, primarily after 06Z, over far NW TN. Remaining
CAMs remain largely dry tonight.

For the MKL TAF, some deference has been given to the HRRR and
latest TCF, resulting in retention of the PROB30 TSRA in the early
overnight.

Prefrontal ridging should cap TSRA develop Wednesday afternoon at
MEM. Should this cap break, rapid TSRA development and
intensification would be likely, given the considerable convective
instability. For the TAF sites, this would mostly likely to occur
at JBR, beyond the 24-hour TAF period.

TSRA chances will ramp up considerably at JBR and MEM after 00Z
Thursday / 7PM CDT Wednesday.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...PWB