Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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459 FXUS64 KMEG 050930 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 430 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 An active pattern is expected across the Mid-South this week with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning mainly this afternoon and continuing into Thursday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with damaging winds and large hail as the threats. Additional severe weather is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain above normal through mid-week with highs mainly in the 80s with lows in the 60s and 70s. Cooler temperatures and drier weather is anticipated for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite shows a mature MCS located across Texas early this morning. This convective activity is associated with a mid-level shortwave trough moving through the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, mostly clear skies and a nearly saturated boundary layer is resulting in some patchy fog at times mainly across portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT are in the 60s. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential through mid-week is the predominant concern in this morning`s forecast issuance. Short-term models indicate the aforementioned mid-level shortwave will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase throughout the day with the best chances occurring this afternoon into tonight. Surface-based CAPE values increasing to between 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25 to 30 kts support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon with damaging winds as the primary severe weather threat. Poor 700-500 mb lapse rates may mitigate the severe weather threat to an extent. Mid-range models continue to advertise a greater potential for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop upstream across western Missouri and Arkansas Monday night and weaken as they begin to move into the Mid-South towards Tuesday morning. Moderate surface-based instability combined with ample shear and moderately-steep to steep mid-level lapse rates will support strong to severe thunderstorms where redevelopment occurs. Some model differences still remain with the placement of a surface low over the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Nonetheless, moderate to strong instability combined with deep layer shear should be more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the Mid- South. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible. Cooler and drier air will filter in to the region by the end of the week with temperatures falling slightly below normal for early May. CJC && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Mostly clear skies prevail. Patchy fog is likely, though areal extent should be less than last night. Went with IFR/MVFR vsbys at TAF sites later tonight. An upper level disturbance will bring SHRAs and TSRAs to the region Sunday afternoon. Not quite confident enough for a TEMPO but getting closer. Winds will be fairly light outside of TSRAs. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...SJM