Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS62 KMFL 182346
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
746 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Today marked the first day most of our climate stations have hit
90 degrees F this year thanks to prolonged southwesterly flow
ahead of a cold front. The front is currently over Central Florida
and is still forecast to move over our area overnight into
tomorrow morning.

Ahead of the front, isolated showers and storms have developed
over portions of the interior and East Coast, but the stronger
thunderstorm activity has mostly remained out over the Atlantic
waters. Portions of Palm Beach County could still see a few
showers and storms develop over the next couple of hours before
the front drops through, but none of that activity is expected to
pose a severe threat to the region.

Behind the front, drier,cooler air will filter in, allowing for a
much needed relief overnight and tomorrow. Lows tonight will drop
into the mid 50s over the interior and mid 60s along the East
Coast. Tomorrow, highs will remain in the low to mid 70s over much
of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Southern Florida remains in the warm sector ahead of a weak frontal
boundary, with prevailing southwest winds and increasing warm
moisture advection. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it
becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to
the NE. Thus, little impacts are expected from this feature over
South Florida this afternoon, with some isolated to scattered
showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly around the Lake region.

The overall synoptic scenario may allow for an efficient daytime
heating process, which could result in some of the hottest
temperatures of the year. Highs could push into the low 90s in some
areas.

Model consensus show the front finally moving across and out of the
peninsula by early Tuesday. Winds veer to the NW and then NE by
Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the FROPA, with subsidence and
stable air filtering into the area. Along with building high
pressure, the forecast calls for benign weather conditions to
establish on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures cooling down into
the 70s

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Beautiful weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure to our north remains in control. Temperatures during this
time period will be at or slightly below normal.

A potent system is expected to cross FL Friday into early Saturday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance all points to the potential for
heavy rainfall across portions of South FL. Early forecast QPF
ranges from 1-3 inches, although some locally higher amounts will
certainly be possible. Still too early to determine if there will be
a severe threat on Friday into Friday evening, but that potential
will be monitored closely over the next several days. Southerly
winds will be quite gusty through late Friday night, especially
along the coasts, with gusts of 30 mph + possible.

Once the system moves off to the east, much drier conditions are
expected for Sunday into early next week as weak upper level ridging
builds into the region. Temperatures Friday through the weekend will
be right around climatological norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions should prevail for most of the sites through the
period. A cold front will move through the area overnight into
tomorrow morning, with westerly winds quickly veering from the
N-NE tomorrow. Some sites could see gusts up to 20-25 kts behind
the front. KAPF could still see sub-VFR conditions over the next
few hours as nearby stratus deck clears from the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Winds shift to the southwest today ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. A few showers are possible this afternoon, particularly
for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. Winds and seas are
expected to increase, especially over the Atlantic waters, with
hazardous marine conditions developing by tonight and lasting
through Tuesday. Conditions will gradually subside by mid week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The risk for rip currents across the east coast beaches increase on
Tuesday behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated
through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            67  76  61  78 /  20  10   0   0
West Kendall     66  78  58  79 /  20  10   0   0
Opa-Locka        66  77  60  80 /  20  10   0   0
Homestead        67  77  61  78 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  66  74  60  76 /  20  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  66  74  60  77 /  20  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   66  76  60  79 /  20  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  63  72  58  75 /  20  10   0   0
Boca Raton       64  74  60  77 /  20  10   0   0
Naples           63  76  56  79 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...ATV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.