Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 151555
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1155 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Strong ridging will remain over the region to wrap up the week
and into the start of the weekend. At the surface, the large body
of high pressure will continue to slowly drift eastward into the
Atlantic Ocean. This shift will allow for the southeasterly
surface winds to slowly veer and become southerly as we head into
the weekend. With strong subsidence continuing over South
Florida, the dry conditions will remain in place today as well as
Saturday. As the winds become more southerly, a moderating trend
in temperatures will continue heading into the weekend. Highs
today will climb into the lower 80s across the east coast metro
areas and into the upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest
Florida. Highs on Saturday could rise a few degrees reaching the
mid 80s across the east coast metro areas and approach 90 across
interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

With light southerly flow in place on Saturday night into Sunday
morning, there will be enough lower level moisture at the surface
to support patchy fog development over the interior and west coast
during this time frame. Any fog that does develop will lift
shortly after sunrise on Sunday morning. The mid level ridge will
begin to break down on Sunday as a deepening mid level trough
dives down across the eastern seaboard from the northwest. At the
surface, broad cyclogenesis may try to develop along a stalled out
frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast states in response to a mid
level impulse quickly moving eastward through the Deep South. This
disturbance will begin to drag the stalled out frontal boundary
farther to the south on Sunday night into Monday. Out ahead of
this front, southerly flow on Sunday will gradually become
southwesterly on Monday and will increase as the pressure gradient
tightens due to the front moves closer to the region. While most
areas will remain dry on Sunday, deeper layer moisture advection
will begin to take place out ahead of the front on Monday. With
the frontal boundary pushing closer to the area as the day
progresses, the chances of showers will increase especially across
the Lake Okeechobee region on Monday afternoon. While the exact
details still remain uncertain, with the front approaching during
peak diurnal heating, there should be enough instability and lift
to support a chance of thunderstorms close to the front over the
Lake Okeechobee region. High temperatures out ahead of the front
on Sunday and Monday will be warm as they will rise into the upper
80s across the east coast metro areas and into the lower 90s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

The latest model guidance is in good agreement with passing the
frontal boundary through South Florida on Monday night. Behind the
front, high pressure centered to the northwest will gradually push
into the region. This will allow for a drier and cooler air mass
to push into the area for Tuesday and heading into the middle of
the week. High temperatures on Tuesday will generally range from
the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s
across the southern areas. High temperatures on Wednesday will
remain in the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas to the
lower 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycle.
The SE winds will continue into the evening hours with gusts up
to 15 KT in the eastern metro corridor. Around 00-03Z, winds will
become light and E/SE. Gulf breeze may allow for SW wind shift
near/over KAPF in the early afternoon before becoming light and
variable after 0Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the
Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, a gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will
remain in place during this time frame. Over the weekend, winds
will veer and gradually become more southerly across all local
waters as a frontal boundary stalls out to the north. Seas across
the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less
through the weekend while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2
feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

As onshore flow continues, there will be a high risk of rip
currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches through the remainder
of the day. As winds become more southerly over the weekend, the
rip current risk will gradually diminish during this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  86  72  86 /   0   0   0  10
West Kendall     68  87  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Opa-Locka        70  88  70  88 /   0   0   0  10
Homestead        70  86  70  87 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  71  85  71  85 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  71  85  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   70  88  70  88 /   0   0   0  10
West Palm Beach  68  86  69  87 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       70  86  70  87 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           68  84  69  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Simmons
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Simmons


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