Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 131335
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
935 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Benign weather conditions prevail across South Florida this
morning as high pressure remains in control of the area. The ridge
located to our north will keep drifting eastward and shift
surface flow to the southeast throughout the day. An upper layer
cloud deck is progressing eastward and will bring moderate
coverage to portions of the region`s clear skies. Otherwise,
temperatures will continue to warm into the mid-80s this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Stout upper ridging continues to dominate the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and South Florida, fostering a benign weather regime.
Within the boundary layer, moderate winds from the east to
southeast are expected. Not much in terms of weather impacts
today, as mostly dry conditions should prevail across the region.
A mild to warm trend persists, with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s across the region. Overnight lows in the 60s to lower
70s are anticipated. By Thursday, an expansion of upper ridging
will be observed across the CWFA, maintaining warm and mostly dry
conditions across the region. Afternoon temperatures may be a
degree or two warmer on average. A subtle wind shift to the
southeast will allow for a slight increase in dew points into the
mid/upper 60s. Overall, the dry and benign trend is expected to
continue, with little expectation of rainfall or any other
weather-related impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Mid-level ridging will build over the area during the late week to
early weekend period, displacing the storm track north of South
Florida (SFL) for most of the extended period. At the surface,
weak high pressure east of the area will maintain a warm southeast
(SE) flow through the upcoming weekend, as any frontal boundaries
will remain well north of the area. The subsiding regime and
fairly stable air mass will keep rain chances minimal through at
least the first half of the weekend. The main story will be the
warming temperatures, especially from Friday onwards, with high
temperatures expected to rise into the upper 80s and potentially
even low 90s by the upcoming weekend. This warming trend is
generally more pronounced across the interior due to the
southeasterly synoptic flow. The ridge may begin to break down,
with flow veering more southwesterly ahead of an approaching
frontal system on Monday. Some models are predicting isolated to
scattered showers across parts of the east coast for late Sunday
into early Monday. However, it is currently too speculative to
pinpoint exact details beyond the potential for rainfall during
this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Light and
variable winds increase out of the SE to around 10 kts early this afternoon.
At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW in the afternoon as a
Gulf breeze develops. Winds will decrease regionwide and remain
light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Winds and seas will continue to diminish as the high pressure to
our north gradually shifts eastward. Wave heights over the Gulf
Stream are expected to decrease down to about 3 feet or less over
all waters today. Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds are
expected to prevail through the mid-week period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A high risk for rip currents will continue along the east coast,
as moderate onshore flow persists through most of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  71  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     83  68  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        83  70  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  71  81  72 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  81  70  81  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   84  70  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  68  81  69 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       82  70  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           82  68  84  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Simmons
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Simmons


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