Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 130701
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
301 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Stout upper ridging continues to dominate the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and South Florida, fostering a benign weather regime.
Within the boundary layer, moderate winds from the east to
southeast are expected. Not much in terms of weather impacts
today, as mostly dry conditions should prevail across the region.
A mild to warm trend persists, with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s across the region. Overnight lows in the 60s to lower
70s are anticipated. By Thursday, an expansion of upper ridging
will be observed across the CWFA, maintaining warm and mostly dry
conditions across the region. Afternoon temperatures may be a
degree or two warmer on average. A subtle wind shift to the
southeast will allow for a slight increase in dew points into the
mid/upper 60s. Overall, the dry and benign trend is expected to
continue, with little expectation of rainfall or any other
weather-related impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Mid-level ridging will build over the area during the late week to
early weekend period, displacing the storm track north of South
Florida (SFL) for most of the extended period. At the surface,
weak high pressure east of the area will maintain a warm southeast
(SE) flow through the upcoming weekend, as any frontal boundaries
will remain well north of the area. The subsiding regime and
fairly stable air mass will keep rain chances minimal through at
least the first half of the weekend. The main story will be the
warming temperatures, especially from Friday onwards, with high
temperatures expected to rise into the upper 80s and potentially
even low 90s by the upcoming weekend. This warming trend is
generally more pronounced across the interior due to the
southeasterly synoptic flow. The ridge may begin to break down,
with flow veering more southwesterly ahead of an approaching
frontal system on Monday. Some models are predicting isolated to
scattered showers across parts of the east coast for late Sunday
into early Monday. However, it is currently too speculative to
pinpoint exact details beyond the potential for rainfall during
this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds overnight will increase out of the SE to around
10 kts early Wednesday afternoon. At KAPF, winds will increase out
of the WSW in the afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Winds and seas will continue to diminish as the high pressure to
our north gradually shifts eastward. Wave heights over the Gulf
Stream are expected to decrease down to about 3 feet or less over
all waters today. Moderate to fresh east-southeasterly winds are
expected to prevail through the mid-week period.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A high risk for rip currents will continue along the east coast,
as moderate onshore flow persists through most of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            83  71  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     84  68  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        83  70  83  70 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        82  70  83  71 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  81  71  81  72 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  82  70  82  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   82  70  82  70 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  68  82  69 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       81  70  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           82  68  85  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CWC


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