365
FXUS62 KMHX 160911
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
511 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
high pressure builds Thursday keeping us dry. Another low
pressure system impacts us this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 500 AM Thursday...Residual showers near downeast Carteret
county will move offshore before daybreak. Fog onset has not
initialized, instead impacting areas to our south and west.
Still a chance of fog developing before 7am today, so kept
patchy fog in the forecast with this update. Highest chances of
fog are west of hwy 17 and along the axis of highest rainfall
during the daytime Wednesday (Duplin/Onslow/Jones/Carteret).
Lows this morning will remain mild with ample cloud cover, in
the low to mid 60s. A nice day is in store today as we settle
into the post- frontal air mass and upper ridging builds in. Sea
breeze develops in the afternoon, but doesn`t progress too far
inland due to the NW flow. moisture profile seems to be too
shallow for rain concerns along the sea breeze so kept the
forecast dry for today. Temps near 80 along the coastal plain
and low to mid 70s along the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 500 AM Thursday..Low offshore to our east strengthens a
tad, and winds pick up as a result for OBX Thursday night,
preventing any decoupling. Over mainland ENC however, we should
decouple, allowing us to radiationally cool a bit as ridging
keeps us mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s inland, low 60s for
beaches. If we end up clearing completely overnight, lows might
be even lower to the low to mid 50s, but seems unlikely at the
moment.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 AM Thursday...High pressure will be across the area
Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this
weekend. High pressure builds back in toward the middle of next
week.

Friday...Ridging crest over the area Friday but shortwave energy
will be approaching that could aid in initiating a few showers
during the afternoon, generally along the sea breeze as it
migrates inland. Instability will be meager with MUCAPE less
than 1000 J/kg keeping tstm chances below mentionable.

Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure
system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern
stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region
Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across
the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then
transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes
across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter
half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are
differences among the models with the evolution, timing and
track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the
region through much of the period. Beneficial rainfall is
expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1.5-2"
with locally higher amounts possible.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper low slowly slides southward
early next week with high pressure building across the Mid-
Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers into Monday but
expect dry conditions into Wednesday. A mid level shortwave and
attendant cold front approaches the area late Wednesday but
moisture looks limited at this time with deep layer westerly
flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 500 AM Thursday...Fog onset has been stubborn, but ISO
just dropped to MVFR with 5SM vis, so seems like other terminals
should follow suit shortly.

Previous Discussion...As of 200 AM Thursday...A mix of VFR and
MVFR flight categories with brief drops down to IFR/LIFR due to
low ceilings currently. Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely
to develop through the early morning hours as stratus develops.
In addition to the stratus, fog potential is increasing along
the axis of highest rainfall (along and S of hwy 70). Conditions
begin to improve after 8-10am as ceilings lift and scour out
with the help of daytime heating and ridging behind the low
offshore, leaving at VFR for the rest of Thursday.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday but
could see isolated showers during the afternoon bringing brief
periods of sub-VFR. A low pressure system will impact the area
through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions
Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 500AM Thursday...SCA for coastal waters between Cape
Lookout and Surf City has expired, leaving us with better
boating conditions through Thursday. Seas 3-5ft and NE winds
near 10kts right now become 2-4ft and NW winds near 10kts this
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 415 AM Thursday...High pressure will be over the waters
Friday with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas around 2-4
ft, but could be locally higher near the Gulf Stream. A complex
low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through
Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance
for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through
Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best
opportunity for SCA conditions will develop sometime Sunday and
continue into early next week with N to NE winds as low
pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences
among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure
to follow updates as details come into focus.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ