National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMLB 161945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AIRMASS LARGELY LACKING IN
ANY SIGNIFICANT MID/UPR LVL LIFTING MECHANISMS TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CONVECTION MUCH PAST SUNSET. H50 TEMPS AOA -6C...NO SIG H85-H50
VORTICITY COUPLETS...NEGATIVE MID LVL OMEGA CONFINED TO THE W FL
COAST...AND CONVERGENT UPR LVLS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF
EXISTING CONVECTION. AS IF TO EMPHASIZE...CG LTG ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ALMOST ABSENT...NLDN RECORDING FEWER THAN A DOZEN STRIKES OVER E
CENT FL AS OF 19Z.

DESPITE HIGH MOISTURE LVLS...LCL AIRMASS IS SIMPLY TOO TORPID TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WILL GO WITH A
PRE-FIRST PD TO COVER CURRENT CONVECTION...SLGT CHC OF TSRAS OVER
THE NRN CWA THRU 02Z THOUGH EVEN THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE L/M70S WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT SERLY FLOW TO KEEP MIN TEMPS
ARND 5F ABV AVG.

MON-TUE...H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AS A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NRN STREAM ROLLS OVER THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ONCE THERE...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE MID LVL
RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX...WITH THE DLM RIDGE AXIS LOCATED BTWN MIAMI
AND TAMPA. THIS WILL GENERATE A DEFINITIVE SWRLY STEERING FLOW ACRS
CENTRAL FL.

THIS FLOW REGIME TENDS TO FOCUS DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST E
FL COAST AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PENETRATES FURTHER INLAND
WHILE THE EAST COAST BREEZE IS FORCED TO OVERCOME THE INERTIA OF THE
WRLY FLOW. MERGER EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND E OF THE FL TURNPIKE
WITH THE WRLY FLOW PUSHING STORMS BACK TO THE E COAST.

THE SWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG ABV AVG...MAX TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE L/M90S OVER MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE U80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. MIN TEMPS L/M70S AREAWIDE.

EXTENDED...(MODIFIED PREV DISC)
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS EAST-WEST
ORIENTED 500MB RIDGE OVER FLORIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AND SHIFT
SOUTH AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH FLORIDA ON THU...THOUGH
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING A MORE COHERENT
BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.

ALL IN ALL HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG BOTH
SEA BREEZES WITH POPS 30-40 PERCENT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION AND BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL DEPEND UPON WHERE THE
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP...BOTH MODELS POINT TO IT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (FAVORING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
FOR RAIN) WITH A MORE DIFFUSE PATTERN THURS/FRI DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.

MIDWEEK WILL SEE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH SLOWER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE MID 70S WITH LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 16/24Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS W OF KTIX-KOBE...ISOLD
SHRA/TSRAS E OF KTIX-KOBE...FC PSBL OVER ATLC S OF KFPR. BTWN
17/00Z-17/02Z...SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS N OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN
17/02Z-17/08Z...VFR ALL SITES. BTWN 17/08Z-17/14Z...LCL MVFR/IFR
CIGS IN STRATUS N OF KISM-KTIX.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE A GENTLE
TO MODERATE S/SE BREEZE...SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-3FT NEARSHORE...
3-4FT OFFSHORE. ISOLD TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF CAPE CANAVERAL THRU
LATE EVNG...ISOLD TSRAS OVER THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT.

MON-TUE...ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE NRN BAHAMAS WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WITH
2-4FT SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...MODERATE TO FRESH S/SWRLY
BREEZE N OF THE INLET WITH 3-5FT SEAS. OFFSHORE COMPONENT N OF THE
INLET WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT PD WIND WAVES.

WED-THU...TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA THRU
MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN A GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW BREEZE. SEAS 2-4FT
S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...3-5FT N OF THE INLET. SCT SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE
THRU MID WEEK WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

FRI...ERN SEABOARD TROF WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO DRIFT BACK TO THE N. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S/SE AND
DIMINISH TO AOB 12KTS. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. STORM COVERAGE TO DIMINISH AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS WITH
THE PASSING RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  73  89 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  74  93  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
MLB  76  89  74  88 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  76  88  75  88 /  10  50  20  30
LEE  74  92  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
SFB  75  93  74  93 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  75  93  74  93 /  20  50  20  30
FPR  76  89  74  88 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...LASCODY