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000
FXUS62 KMLB 161420
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW CENTRAL FL UNDER A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LVL
MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.6"-1.8" AT KXMR/KTBW...DECREASING TO
1.2" AT KJAX/KMFL. VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW OVERHEAD WITH KXMR/KTBW
SOUNDINGS MEASURING WRLY FLOW ARND 5KTS THRU THE H85-H30 LYR. RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CULPRITS FOR THE WEAK FLOW ARE AN H100-H70 HI
PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS WELL AS AN H85-H50
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX...BOTH WITH THEIR AXES DRAPED ACRS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.

GIVEN THE WEAK PGRAD/STEERING FLOW OVERHEAD...SHOULD SEE BOTH EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES FORM BY MIDDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
L/M70S AND HIGH MOISTURE THRU THE H100-H70 LYR SUGGESTS SHRA/TSRA
FORMATION ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT...THOUGH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
NOT ALLOW THEM TO ADVANCE VERY FAR. WHILE OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE LOW (20-30PCT COASTAL COUNTIES...30-40PCT INTERIOR
COUNTIES)...AND CONVECTION THAT DOES DVLP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING VERY HEAVY LOCAL RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

INLAND PROGRESS OF THE SEA BREEZES WILL BE QUITE SLOW...PROBABLY
WILL NOT SEE INTERACTION UNTIL LATE AFTN ALONG AND W OF THE FL
TURNPIKE. WRLY STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE PANHANDLE PER THE
KJAX/KTAE SOUNDINGS...COULD SEE SOME BLOW BACK CONVECTION N OF CAPE
CANAVERAL INTO EARLY EVENING.

OVERALL FCST LOOKS GOOD...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS BUT NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES THRU THE FIRST PD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 16/18...AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN FL015-025 ALL SITES. BTWN
16/18Z-16/24Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS W OF KTIX-KOBE...ISOLD
SHRA/TSRAS E OF KTIX-KOBE. BTWN 17/00Z-17/03Z...SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS.
BTWN 17/03Z-17/09Z...VFR ALL SITES. BTWN 17/09Z-17/13Z...AREAS
MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS N OF KISM-KTIX.

&&

.MARINE...
DATA BUOYS/C-MAN STATIONS MEASURING E/SE WINDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS
3-4FT MAINLY IN AN ERLY SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED AS A HI
PRES RIDGE AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO
MODERATE E/SE BREEZE THIS AFTN. ISOLD SHRAS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NRN BAHAMAS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...LASCODY