National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMLB 150710
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE WRN GOMEX WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY INTO THE ATLC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SRN BRANCH OF
THE H30-H20 JET STREAM. POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY
E/SE BREEZE ACRS CENTRAL FL. EVENING SOUNDINGS MEASURED A DRY AND
VERY STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD...PWAT VALUES BTWN 0.6"-0.8" WITH A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATING H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 70-80PCT...IR SAT PICS
SHOWING A FEW POCKETS OF STRATOCU ALONG AND N OF THE BAHAMA BANK.

BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CAP VERTICAL MOTION BTWN
5-6KFT...ONLY SCT CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. DESPITE NEAR FULL SUN...
THE ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BLO AVG...L80S ALONG
THE COAST...M80S INTERIOR. WEAK PGRAD AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE BNDRY LYR TO DECOUPLE...RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE L/M60S INTERIOR...IMMEDIATE
SPACE/TREASURE COAST WILL HOLD IN THE M/U60S.

LATE WEEK...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE FEATURES IS ADVERTISED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN WEST TO EAST ELONGATED HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS LOCALLY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO EASE FRI AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF AND FL REGION. WL KEEP POP JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVEL THROUGH FRI BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DIURNAL
STORM OR TWO WEST OF ORLANDO DURING LATE FRI AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED...NEXT WEEK BEGINS WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LESS CONV INHIBITION
WITH WEAKENING OF RIDGE NR AREA WL ALLOW FOR ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL
PCPN. INLAND STORM CHCS IMPROVE SAT/SUN AND BEST PLACEMENT WL BE
INLAND WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY MERGERS WL FORCE A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY. PRESENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS
MODERATED WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
EARLY SIGNALS BEYOND DAY 7 SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE AND WOULD EXPECT A
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHC FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS PAST THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 16/00Z...VFR ALL SITES. BTWN 15/18Z-15/22Z...OCNL SFC WND
G20KTS S OF KVRB.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE AXIS OVER N FL WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE
TO MODERATE E/SE BREEZE...SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE
MAINLY IN A 9SEC SWELL.

LATE WEEK...ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS WL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS
GENERALLY WL REMAIN IN THE 2-4FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY-TONIGHT...E/SE SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE
DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL FL. MIN RH VALUES ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR MAY FALL BLO 35PCT FOR 4-6HRS...NO OTHER FIRE WX ISSUES
ANTICIPATED. CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WL MITIGATE ANY LOW RH DURATION CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  63  83  66 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  86  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  81  66  82  69 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  80  65  82  66 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  86  63  87  67 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  86  63  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  86  63  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  80  65  82  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST