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000
FXUS62 KMLB 181840
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF ORLANDO TOWARD SUNSET WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW
PERSISTS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL PRODUCE LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS FOR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TO MOVE INLAND AND COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. LINGERING DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND COOL 500MB
TEMPS AROUND -10C WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONGER INLAND STORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND.

MON-SAT (MODIFIED)...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CAP THAT WAS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. DEEPENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS PULLING MORE
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GREATEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE FORECAST
TO BE MID WEEK WHICH WOULD CORRELATE TO THE HIGHEST POP AT AROUND
40 PERCENT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR RETURNS BY FRIDAY BUT SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES INTERACTING SHOULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DROPS
OFF TO AROUND 20 PERCENT SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL CAP/S EFFECT
TAKES CHARGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR. DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID
80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES. MID AND UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
HAD MORE TIME TO RISE BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SEA BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF ORLANDO TOWARD SUNSET
WILL GENERATE ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY EVENING PRODUCING
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR STORMS BETWEEN 21-01Z
FOR KSFB/KMCO/KISM/KLEE WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE GREATER. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE AFT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND
ACROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
3 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE. A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG
PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW TO
MODERATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTN ESP INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  85  69  83 /  10  30  20  20
MCO  69  89  70  88 /  30  40  20  30
MLB  70  84  73  85 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  70  85  72  85 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  70  89  71  87 /  30  40  20  30
SFB  69  89  71  88 /  30  40  20  30
ORL  69  88  72  88 /  30  40  20  30
FPR  69  84  71  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY