Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 220459
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1159 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Ceilings will lower this evening with scattered light showers
passing over the coastal terminals through the late evening. MVFR
to IFR ceilings continue Friday morning with additional chances of
showers and storms. /13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Weak shortwave ridging will move to the east of our region tonight
with flow aloft transitioning more southwesterly in advance of an
upper level trough that will be moving out of eastern Texas and
across our area Friday and Friday evening. As a result, atmospheric
moisture should slowly improve across our area through the near
term, with PWAT`s possibly increasing to around 1.3-1.5 inches
during the day on Friday as a surface low pressure reflection of
the upper trough moves east along the central Gulf coast region. We
could see some shower activity move into our area from the south
tonight, but forcing for ascent currently looks to be greatest out
over the Gulf where a warm front boundary will be in place. However,
the gradual deep layer moistening in combination with sufficient
weak ascent within southwest flow aloft will support a chance of
rain showers across our forecast area to increase late tonight and
especially into Friday. By late this evening and especially into the
overnight hours, PoPs should be ranging up to between 30-40% over
much of the region. Rainfall amounts should be very sporadic and
light in nature, with the best potential for light QPF currently
looking to be near the coast. Highest PoPs across the region should
be during the day on Friday and into the early evening hours Friday,
as upper support will be greatest during that time with the
aforementioned upper trough moving east across our area. This
feature should gradually move east of our forecast area by late
Friday night, with PoPs decreasing from west to east across the
region.

The mid/upper level flow pattern becomes increasingly diffluent
across our region ahead of the upper trough during the day Friday,
with ascent favorable for the development of numerous to widespread
rain showers with elevated instability also sufficient for isolated
to scattered embedded thunderstorms ahead of the approaching upper
trough and surface low. The surface theta-e boundary/warm front may
lift to near the immediate coast, but may stay just offshore during
the day Friday. Forecast soundings along the immediate coast would
suggest that elevated instability and shear profiles may be
supportive of a storm or two near the immediate coast potentially
capable of producing marginally severe hail or gusty winds Friday,
but overall severe potential will probably remain confined south of
the coast. SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe storms for Friday along
the immediate coastal counties of our forecast area, and this seems
reasonable at this time.

Low temperatures both tonight and Friday night should range in the
50s across the entire area. Highs on Friday should be tempered
somewhat due to clouds and precip coverage, ranging mostly in the
mid to upper 60s, but with some scattered low 70s mixed in here and
there.

For beach interests: A LOW rip current risk continues today
and tonight. However, we do expect the rip current risk to trend
MODERATE by Friday, then HIGH for a brief time by late Friday night
or early Saturday in association with the increased onshore flow
ahead of the passing low pressure system. Surf still looks to build
to around 3-4 feet along area beaches Friday night into Saturday.
DS/12

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

The area begins to dry out on Saturday on the backside of a surface
low and cold front. That said, light wrap-around precipitation will
be possible throughout the morning hours, especially for locations
east of I-65. Given the low confidence in the occurrence of this
precipitation, we did not stray much from the low POPs in the
blended guidance, but POPs may need to be increased in future
forecast packages if confidence increases.

A surface high over Canada and the Upper Midwest spills into the
local area for the remainder of the weekend with weak mid and upper
level ridging moving overhead. Dry air continues to filter into the
area in this pattern and POPs remain zero through Sunday night. The
coldest night throughout this part of the forecast will likely be
Saturday night into Sunday morning in the wake of the aforementioned
front. Temperatures will plunge into the mid to low 40s inland with
50s at the beaches by sunrise on Sunday.

The next rain maker will be associated with the potent trough
swinging into the central portion of the CONUS Monday night into
Tuesday. A surface low develops over the Plains and quickly pivots
into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. Moisture begins to steadily
increase by Monday with deep southerly flow allowing PWATs to surge
into the 1.5-1.8 inch range as we head into Tuesday. Rain chances
steadily increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a cold front
nearing the region. The bulk of the precipitation appears to be out
of phase with the best dynamics, so while severe weather doesn`t
necessarily appear likely right now, that doesn`t mean that this
won`t change as we get closer to the event. The potential for heavy
rain looks more likely across our northernmost counties based on this
pattern, but that might also change as we get closer in time. The
bulk of the rain should push out of the area by Wednesday morning
with the trough aloft eventually sliding further to our east on
Thursday.

Beach Note: The risk of rip currents remains HIGH on Saturday. Surf
heights steadily increase ahead of the early week system (next week)
with the surf building to 5-7 feet Monday through Wednesday. The
risk of rip currents will likely jump back to a HIGH Monday through
at least Wednesday of next week. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow developing this
afternoon will continue through tonight. This onshore flow will
increase on Friday ahead of an area of low pressure moving along the
coast, likely reaching at least Small Craft Exercise Caution
criteria. A strong offshore flow returns Friday night into Saturday
behind this passing feature, with Small Craft Advisory conditions
possibly developing, especially over the open Gulf waters. A strong
southeasterly flow is forecast to develop again late Sunday into
Monday, gradually weakening toward the middle part of the week.
Winds and seas could therefore be hazardous for small craft late
this week and continues over the weekend and possibly into the early
pat of next week. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      55  70  55  71  46  71  57  73 /  40  70  40   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   59  68  57  71  49  71  59  71 /  30  70  30   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      58  68  59  72  51  70  57  72 /  30  70  40   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   53  69  52  69  43  74  49  73 /  30  80  70  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  53  66  52  68  41  73  52  72 /  50  80  40   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      53  66  53  67  41  71  52  72 /  30  80  70  10   0   0   0   0
Crestview   53  69  55  71  44  74  50  73 /  30  70  60  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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